Beşiktaş 1-3 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Alanyaspor travel to Tüpraş Stadyumu to take on Beşiktaş in Süper Lig (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Thursday 21 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Beşiktaş have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Beşiktaş's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Alanyaspor — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Alanyaspor away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Beşiktaş are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Beşiktaş have won 2, Alanyaspor 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Jan 2023, ended Beşiktaş 3–0 Alanyaspor — a Beşiktaş win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Beşiktaş trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Alanyaspor trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 59% versus Alanyaspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 59% | Alanyaspor 65%). Note also that Alanyaspor surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Beşiktaş recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 56% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.67 xG and Alanyaspor 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.007 / defence 0.855 | Alanyaspor attack 0.678 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.261. Alanyaspor's attack rating of 0.678 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Beşiktaş's last 51 games and Alanyaspor's last 51.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 59% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.69 | Draw 3.96 | Alanyaspor 6.45. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (59%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — low conviction — though recent form (Beşiktaş's last 10 home games and Alanyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Beşiktaş 50% (last 10 home games) | Alanyaspor 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 17 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Thursday 21 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 59% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Beşiktaş 1.67 / Alanyaspor 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.007 / def 0.855 | Alanyaspor attack 0.678 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Alanyaspor xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor FAQs
What time does Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Thursday 21 December 2023 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Beşiktaş 1 - 3 Alanyaspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 17) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 59% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Beşiktaş's last 51 games and Alanyaspor's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
59%
1.69
25%
3.96
16%
6.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.40
0.73
Alanyaspor xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
6.45
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
3%
34.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 11.1 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.73 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 31W 11D 9L from 51 games, a 2.04 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 24L across 51 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beşiktaş by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alanyaspor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 18W 5D 2L from their last 25 home games — 2.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 4W 6D 15L across their last 25 away games, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.29 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
Beşiktaş (Home) vs Alanyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Beşiktaş
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 31W 11D 9L in their last 51 games (2.04 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 14W 13D 24L in their last 51 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Alanyaspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.36 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Apr 2022, when Beşiktaş won Beşiktaş 4-1 Alanyaspor.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
5
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Beşiktaş have won 2, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Alanyaspor 1-0 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 52%, Alanyaspor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Beşiktaş and 64% for Alanyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 48% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Beşiktaş's matches and 64% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 71% of Alanyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Beşiktaş.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Beşiktaş 1-3 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.67 xG and Alanyaspor 0.73 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Alanyaspor outscored their 0.73 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.01 / defence 0.85 against Alanyaspor attack 0.68 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 59% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 16%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Alanyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 59%, Alanyaspor 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Alanyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.