Başakşehir 4-1 Pendikspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Pendikspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Pendikspor travel to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to take on Başakşehir. The game is scheduled for Monday 27 November 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pendikspor stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pendikspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Pendikspor have posted 2W 2D 2L from 6 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Başakşehir 0.90 PPG, Pendikspor 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
Pendikspor in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 17% versus Pendikspor 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 25% | Pendikspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.75 xG and Pendikspor 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.065 / defence 1.113 | Pendikspor attack 1.142 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.185. Data: 48 Başakşehir games / 12 Pendikspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 42% | Draw 26% | Pendikspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Pendikspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 50% | Pendikspor 83% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Pendikspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 27 Nov 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 42% | Draw 26% | Pendikspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Başakşehir 1.75 / Pendikspor 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.065 / def 1.113 | Pendikspor attack 1.142 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Pendikspor xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Pendikspor kick off?
Başakşehir vs Pendikspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 27 November 2023 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Pendikspor?
Başakşehir 4 - 1 Pendikspor.
Where is Başakşehir vs Pendikspor being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Pendikspor part of?
Başakşehir vs Pendikspor is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Pendikspor?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 42% chance of winning, Pendikspor a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Pendikspor?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Başakşehir and Pendikspor will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Pendikspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Pendikspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Başakşehir and Pendikspor in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Pendikspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.06) and Pendikspor's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pendikspor's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.84
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.26
1.51
Pendikspor xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
9%
10.69
6%
18.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Pendikspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Pendikspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.51 for Pendikspor, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Pendikspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 2W 3D 7L from 12 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pendikspor, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 5L across 12 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Pendikspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 0.75 PPG, Pendikspor on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pendikspor's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pendikspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Pendikspor are on 1.25 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Başakşehir have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games; Pendikspor in 75%.
Last 12 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Pendikspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Pendikspor in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 2W 3D 7L in their last 12 games (0.75 PPG), while Pendikspor have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Pendikspor away?
Pendikspor's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 0.80 PPG; Pendikspor away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Pendikspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pendikspor in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Başakşehir and Pendikspor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
0
Draws
0
Pendikspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Pendikspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Pendikspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Pendikspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2024, when Pendikspor 2-3 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Pendikspor?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 40%, Pendikspor 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Başakşehir and 80% for Pendikspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Pendikspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Pendikspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Başakşehir's games and 80% of Pendikspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Pendikspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Başakşehir's matches and 80% of Pendikspor's.
Do Başakşehir and Pendikspor tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Pendikspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Başakşehir run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Pendikspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Pendikspor 4-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.75 xG and Pendikspor 1.51 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Başakşehir beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.06 / defence 1.11 against Pendikspor attack 1.14 / defence 1.12, drawn from 48/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 42% | Draw 26% | Pendikspor 32%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 25%, Pendikspor 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Pendikspor's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 0.75 PPG, Pendikspor 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. Pendikspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.