Antalyaspor 2-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Antalyaspor host Sivasspor at Corendon Airlines Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 24 January 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Antalyaspor — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Corendon Airlines Park.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Antalyaspor at 1.50 PPG versus Sivasspor's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Antalyaspor have won 2, Sivasspor 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 49% versus Sivasspor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 42% | Sivasspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.27 xG and Sivasspor 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.738 / defence 0.730 | Sivasspor attack 1.026 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.229. Antalyaspor's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Antalyaspor's defence rating of 0.730 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Antalyaspor games / 57 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 42% | Draw 34% | Sivasspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Sivasspor 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Antalyaspor 40% | Sivasspor 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Jan 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 42% | Draw 34% | Sivasspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Antalyaspor 1.27 / Sivasspor 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.738 / def 0.730 | Sivasspor attack 1.026 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Sivasspor xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 24 January 2024 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Antalyaspor 2 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 42% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Antalyaspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Sivasspor?
Record (5 meetings): Antalyaspor 2W | Draws 2 | Sivasspor 1W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Sivasspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 0.74x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
42%
2.39
34%
2.93
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.19
0.92
Sivasspor xG
2.39
42%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
7%
14.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.92 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 18W 17D 22L record — L-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor's form line: 17W 16D 24L from 57 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.25 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.55 PPG from 29 outings (12W 9D 8L).
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 11W 2D 16L from 29 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.26 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 61%.
Last 57 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 18W 17D 22L in their last 57 games (1.25 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 17W 16D 24L in their last 57 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.55 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antalyaspor and Sivasspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
2
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 4, Sivasspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Sivasspor 2-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Sivasspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 52%, Sivasspor 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Antalyaspor) and 69% (Sivasspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Antalyaspor have failed to score in 31% of games; Sivasspor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 55% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Antalyaspor's matches and 69% of Sivasspor's.
Do Antalyaspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Sivasspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Sivasspor 2-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.27 xG and Sivasspor 0.92 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.74 / defence 0.73 against Sivasspor attack 1.03 / defence 1.14, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 42% | Draw 34% | Sivasspor 24%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 42%, Sivasspor 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.25 PPG, Sivasspor 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.