Antalyaspor 2-1 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Antalyaspor face Hatayspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Corendon Airlines Park plays host to Antalyaspor versus Hatayspor in Süper Lig (matchday 33). Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Antalyaspor have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Antalyaspor have posted 3W 6D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Hatayspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Hatayspor have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Antalyaspor, 1.10 for Hatayspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Antalyaspor, 1 for Hatayspor and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Dec 2023, ended Antalyaspor 3–3 Hatayspor — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 50% versus Hatayspor 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 43% | Hatayspor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.16 xG and Hatayspor 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.834 / defence 0.841 | Hatayspor attack 0.614 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.233. Hatayspor's attack rating of 0.614 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.64. Data: built from Antalyaspor's last 68 games and Hatayspor's last 68.
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 46% | Draw 36% | Hatayspor 18%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.17 | Draw 2.79 | Hatayspor 5.54. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Hatayspor's lower xG of 0.64 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Antalyaspor's last 10 home games and Hatayspor's last 10 away games) averaging 1.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Antalyaspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Hatayspor 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 33 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 46% | Draw 36% | Hatayspor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Antalyaspor 1.16 / Hatayspor 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.834 / def 0.841 | Hatayspor attack 0.614 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Hatayspor xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor FAQs
What time does Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Antalyaspor 2 - 1 Hatayspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 33) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 46% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 18% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Antalyaspor and Hatayspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Hatayspor's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.61x) against Antalyaspor's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from Antalyaspor's last 68 games and Hatayspor's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.6%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
46%
2.17
36%
2.79
18%
5.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
1.79
0.64
Hatayspor xG
2.17
46%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
5.54
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
6%
17.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 12.3 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.64 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antalyaspor come into this having played 68 games, going 21W 20D 27L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 0.82 PPG from 68 outings (13W 17D 38L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Antalyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Antalyaspor's home form reads 14W 11D 9L across their last 34 home games, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.53 points per game from their last 34 away games (4W 6D 24L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 0.81 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Hatayspor
Current Season
Antalyaspor (Home) vs Hatayspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Hatayspor
Current Season
❓ Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor Form FAQs
What form are Antalyaspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 21W 20D 27L in their last 68 games (1.22 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 13W 17D 38L in their last 68 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.56 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Antalyaspor and Hatayspor, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Antalyaspor have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won Antalyaspor 4-1 Hatayspor on 11 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Hatayspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Antalyaspor have won 5, Hatayspor have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Hatayspor 2-3 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Hatayspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 53%, Hatayspor 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Antalyaspor) and 56% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 29% of games; Hatayspor in 68%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antalyaspor vs Hatayspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antalyaspor and Hatayspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 26% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Antalyaspor and Hatayspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 56% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Hatayspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 67% of Hatayspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Hatayspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Hatayspor 2-1 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.16 xG and Hatayspor 0.64 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Antalyaspor beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.83 / defence 0.84 against Hatayspor attack 0.61 / defence 0.96, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 46% | Draw 36% | Hatayspor 18%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 43%, Hatayspor 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Hatayspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Antalyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.