Antalyaspor 0-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 23 as Antalyaspor welcome Başakşehir to Corendon Airlines Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antalyaspor have posted 5W 2D 3L at Corendon Airlines Park — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Başakşehir — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Antalyaspor) versus 1.60 (Başakşehir). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Antalyaspor, 4 for Başakşehir and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 2–5 with Başakşehir winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 59% versus Başakşehir 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 49% | Başakşehir 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.88 xG and Başakşehir 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.916 / defence 1.181 | Başakşehir attack 1.090 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.266. Başakşehir bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Antalyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Antalyaspor games / 59 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 43% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 33%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Başakşehir 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 60% | Başakşehir 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 43% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Antalyaspor 1.88 / Başakşehir 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.916 / def 1.181 | Başakşehir attack 1.090 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Başakşehir xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Antalyaspor 0 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 43% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Antalyaspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Başakşehir?
Record (7 meetings): Antalyaspor 2W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 4W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Başakşehir in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
43%
2.32
24%
4.12
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
3.51
1.63
Başakşehir xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
15%
6.57
Win to Nil
8%
11.83
5%
20.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.2 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.63 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 19W 17D 23L from 59 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 20L across 59 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.25 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 13W 10D 6L from 29 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 11W 5D 13L across 29 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.63 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 19W 17D 23L in their last 59 games (1.25 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 27W 12D 20L in their last 59 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.69 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Antalyaspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Başakşehir won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
3
Draws
5
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Başakşehir have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Başakşehir 0-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 59%, Başakşehir 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Antalyaspor) and 45% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 28% of games; Başakşehir in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 45% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 45% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Antalyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor and Başakşehir finished level at 0-0 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.88 xG and Başakşehir 1.63 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Başakşehir landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.18 against Başakşehir attack 1.09 / defence 1.20, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 43% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 33%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 49%, Başakşehir 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Başakşehir's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.25 PPG, Başakşehir 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.