Alanyaspor 2-2 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Göztepe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Göztepe make the trip to Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu to face Alanyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Alanyaspor have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's home record at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu: 3W 0D 1L from 4 Süper Lig appearances (2.25 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
Göztepe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe away from home this season: 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Alanyaspor. A 1.20 PPG lead over Göztepe (2.00 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Göztepe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 50% versus Göztepe 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 40% | Göztepe 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.99 xG and Göztepe 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.320 / defence 1.401 | Göztepe attack 0.966 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.123. Alanyaspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.320 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Göztepe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Alanyaspor games / 10 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 49% | Draw 22% | Göztepe 30%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.04 | Draw 4.55 | Göztepe 3.33. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 50% | Göztepe 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 49% | Draw 22% | Göztepe 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Alanyaspor 1.99 / Göztepe 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.320 / def 1.401 | Göztepe attack 0.966 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Göztepe xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Göztepe kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Göztepe kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Göztepe?
Alanyaspor 2 - 2 Göztepe.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Göztepe part of?
Alanyaspor vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 49% chance of winning, Göztepe a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Alanyaspor and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Göztepe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alanyaspor and Göztepe in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Göztepe (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Göztepe's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. Flip it around — Göztepe's attack (0.97x) against Alanyaspor's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
49%
2.05
22%
4.62
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.51
1.52
Göztepe xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
14%
7.34
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
4%
24.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.52 for Göztepe, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 6W 2D 2L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Göztepe's form line: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games, 0.80 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Alanyaspor are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Göztepe.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Alanyaspor have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L).
On the road, Göztepe have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 0.90 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe in 60%.
Defensively: Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 games (2.00 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Göztepe away?
Alanyaspor's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 2.25 PPG; Göztepe away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Göztepe in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Göztepe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
0
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 3, Göztepe have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Göztepe 2-2 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Göztepe?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Alanyaspor, 100% for Göztepe — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Alanyaspor and 100% for Göztepe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Alanyaspor's games and 100% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Alanyaspor's matches and 100% of Göztepe's.
Do Alanyaspor and Göztepe tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor and Göztepe share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor and Göztepe finished level at 2-2 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.99 xG and Göztepe 1.52 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.32 / defence 1.40 against Göztepe attack 0.97 / defence 1.25, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 49% | Draw 22% | Göztepe 30%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 40%, Göztepe 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Göztepe's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.