Alanyaspor 1-1 Ankaragücü – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ankaragücü at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Ankaragücü fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alanyaspor and Ankaragücü meet at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 9 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Alanyaspor have posted 3W 3D 4L at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ankaragücü (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ankaragücü, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ankaragücü have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Alanyaspor, 1.10 for Ankaragücü — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ankaragücü in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Alanyaspor 1W, Ankaragücü 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Ankaragücü winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Alanyaspor — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ankaragücü — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 50% versus Ankaragücü 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 65% | Ankaragücü 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.50 xG and Ankaragücü 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.996 / defence 1.164 | Ankaragücü attack 1.028 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.261. Data: 54 Alanyaspor games / 54 Ankaragücü games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 27% | Ankaragücü 37%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Ankaragücü 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ankaragücü are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ankaragücü if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 60% | Ankaragücü 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Ankaragücü | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 27% | Ankaragücü 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Alanyaspor 1.50 / Ankaragücü 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.996 / def 1.164 | Ankaragücü attack 1.028 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Ankaragücü (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Ankaragücü xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Ankaragücü kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Ankaragücü kicked off at 14:00 on Tuesday 9 January 2024 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Ankaragücü?
Alanyaspor 1 - 1 Ankaragücü.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Ankaragücü being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Ankaragücü part of?
Alanyaspor vs Ankaragücü is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 36% chance of winning, Ankaragücü a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ankaragücü the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Alanyaspor and Ankaragücü will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Ankaragücü have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Ankaragücü?
Record (2 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Ankaragücü 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Ankaragücü in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Ankaragücü (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (1.00) and Ankaragücü's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ankaragücü's attack (1.03x) against Alanyaspor's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ankaragücü Win
36%
2.75
27%
3.73
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.01
1.51
Ankaragücü xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
8%
12.42
8%
12.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.2 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Ankaragücü expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.51 for Ankaragücü, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Ankaragücü?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alanyaspor's recent record stands at 16W 14D 24L from 54 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ankaragücü, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 24L across 54 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Ankaragücü is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Alanyaspor against 1.15 for Ankaragücü. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Alanyaspor have managed 11W 6D 9L from 26 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ankaragücü's away record stands at 8W 5D 13L across 26 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Ankaragücü are on 1.20 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Ankaragücü
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Ankaragücü in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 16W 14D 24L in their last 54 games (1.15 PPG), while Ankaragücü have gone 16W 14D 24L in their last 54 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Ankaragücü away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.50 PPG; Ankaragücü away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ankaragücü — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
1
Ankaragücü
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Ankaragücü?
From 4 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Ankaragücü have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Ankaragücü last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when Ankaragücü 1-1 Alanyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 50%, Ankaragücü 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Alanyaspor) and 54% (Ankaragücü). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Ankaragücü away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Ankaragücü?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Alanyaspor's games and 65% of Ankaragücü's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Ankaragücü usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Alanyaspor's matches and 54% of Ankaragücü's.
Do Alanyaspor and Ankaragücü tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ankaragücü in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor and Ankaragücü share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor and Ankaragücü finished level at 1-1 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.50 xG and Ankaragücü 1.51 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.16 against Ankaragücü attack 1.03 / defence 1.00, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 27% | Ankaragücü 37%, with Ankaragücü to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 65%, Ankaragücü 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Ankaragücü's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.15 PPG, Ankaragücü 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.