Adana Demirspor 2-4 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sivasspor at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Sivasspor travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor. The game is scheduled for Friday 25 October 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Adana Demirspor have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 outings — a 0.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor at Yeni Adana Stadyumu this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Adana Demirspor are significantly better at Yeni Adana Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Sivasspor — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Sivasspor have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sivasspor are 1.30 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Adana Demirspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sivasspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Adana Demirspor have won 3, Sivasspor 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 4–1 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Adana Demirspor trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Sivasspor trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Adana Demirspor 63% and Sivasspor 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 61% | Sivasspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.27 xG and Sivasspor 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.840 / defence 1.524 | Sivasspor attack 0.921 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.288. Data: 46 Adana Demirspor games / 47 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 26% | Draw 24% | Sivasspor 50%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Sivasspor 2.00. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.27 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Adana Demirspor dominate the H2H record, yet Sivasspor are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Sivasspor are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 60% | Sivasspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 25 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 26% | Draw 24% | Sivasspor 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.27 / Sivasspor 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.840 / def 1.524 | Sivasspor attack 0.921 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Sivasspor xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 25 October 2024 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Adana Demirspor 2 - 4 Sivasspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 26% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor?
Record (6 meetings): Adana Demirspor 3W | Draws 2 | Sivasspor 1W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 0.84x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
26%
3.78
24%
4.21
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
3.07
1.81
Sivasspor xG
3.78
26%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
4%
23.06
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.81 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 46 games, going 10W 15D 21L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.39 PPG from 46 outings (17W 13D 16L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 9W 4D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.26 points per game from 23 outings (8W 5D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.24 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 10W 15D 21L in their last 46 games (0.98 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 17W 13D 16L in their last 46 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.35 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sivasspor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Sivasspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Adana Demirspor
2
Draws
3
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 3, Sivasspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Sivasspor 5-1 Adana Demirspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 56%, Sivasspor 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Adana Demirspor and 56% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Sivasspor in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Adana Demirspor's games and 61% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 56% of Sivasspor's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Adana Demirspor 2-4 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.27 xG and Sivasspor 1.81 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Sivasspor outscored their 1.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.52 against Sivasspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 26% | Draw 24% | Sivasspor 50%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 61%, Sivasspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sivasspor arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.