Adana Demirspor 5-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Adana Demirspor at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.

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Full Analysis

Yeni Adana Stadyumu plays host to Adana Demirspor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 22 January 2022 at 13:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Adana Demirspor have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Adana Demirspor's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Yeni Adana Stadyumu this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yeni Adana Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Adana Demirspor's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Fatih Karagümrük's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Adana Demirspor, 1 for Fatih Karagümrük and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 0–4 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).

Fatih Karagümrük goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 54% versus Fatih Karagümrük 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 41% | Fatih Karagümrük 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.25 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.844 / defence 0.882 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.906 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.098. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Adana Demirspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Adana Demirspor games / 22 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 45% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 26%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Fatih Karagümrük 3.85. Adana Demirspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Adana Demirspor at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 60% BTTS from recent games.

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