Adana Demirspor 0-1 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Başakşehir travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 January 2025, 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Adana Demirspor — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana Demirspor have gone 1W 0D 9L this season (10 games, 0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Başakşehir have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Adana Demirspor 0.70 PPG, Başakşehir 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Başakşehir have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Adana Demirspor.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 2–6 with Başakşehir winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Başakşehir have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Adana Demirspor trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Başakşehir trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 61% versus Başakşehir 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 61% | Başakşehir 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.42 xG and Başakşehir 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.783 / defence 1.416 | Başakşehir attack 0.960 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.193. Adana Demirspor's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 Adana Demirspor games / 54 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 32% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 40%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Başakşehir 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 70% | Başakşehir 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jan 2025, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 32% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.42 / Başakşehir 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.783 / def 1.416 | Başakşehir attack 0.960 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Başakşehir xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 4 January 2025 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir?
Adana Demirspor 0 - 1 Başakşehir.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 32% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir?
Record (6 meetings): Adana Demirspor 1W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 4W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Başakşehir (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Adana Demirspor's attack rating (0.78) and Başakşehir's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
32%
3.17
28%
3.55
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
3.04
1.62
Başakşehir xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
6%
16.04
10%
10.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.62 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 12W 16D 26L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir's form line: 24W 12D 18L from 54 games, 1.56 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Adana Demirspor.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 1.26 PPG from 27 outings (10W 4D 13L).
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 10W 5D 12L from 27 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.56 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 12W 16D 26L in their last 54 games (0.96 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 24W 12D 18L in their last 54 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Başakşehir's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.26 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 May 2024, when Başakşehir won 2-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
1
Draws
5
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Başakşehir have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Başakşehir 2-3 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 56%, Başakşehir 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Adana Demirspor) and 44% (Başakşehir). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor have failed to score in 26% of games; Başakşehir in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 44% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 44% of Başakşehir's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Adana Demirspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Adana Demirspor 0-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.42 xG and Başakşehir 1.62 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Adana Demirspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.42 against Başakşehir attack 0.96 / defence 1.11, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 32% | Draw 28% | Başakşehir 40%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 61%, Başakşehir 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Başakşehir's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.