Adana Demirspor 1-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yeni Adana Stadyumu plays host to Adana Demirspor versus Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Friday 14 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Adana Demirspor have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor at Yeni Adana Stadyumu this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 home games — 0.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
Antalyaspor (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Antalyaspor are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Adana Demirspor 4W, Antalyaspor 2W, 1D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Antalyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 58% versus Antalyaspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 60% | Antalyaspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.53 xG and Antalyaspor 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.783 / defence 1.594 | Antalyaspor attack 0.900 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.219. Adana Demirspor's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.53 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Adana Demirspor games / 60 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 32% | Draw 26% | Antalyaspor 42%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Antalyaspor 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Adana Demirspor dominate the H2H record, yet Antalyaspor are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Adana Demirspor 50% | Antalyaspor 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 14 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 32% | Draw 26% | Antalyaspor 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.53 / Antalyaspor 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.783 / def 1.594 | Antalyaspor attack 0.900 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Antalyaspor xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 14 February 2025 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Adana Demirspor 1 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 32% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (7 meetings): Adana Demirspor 4W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 2W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Adana Demirspor's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.90x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (1.59x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
32%
3.08
26%
3.89
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
3.27
1.75
Antalyaspor xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
17%
5.74
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
6%
17.70
9%
10.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.75 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 60 games, going 12W 16D 32L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.25 PPG from 60 outings (19W 18D 23L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.87 PPG for Adana Demirspor against 1.25 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 10W 4D 16L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.83 points per game from 30 outings (6W 7D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Attack vs Defence
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.15 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 12W 16D 32L in their last 60 games (0.87 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 19W 18D 23L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.13 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Adana Demirspor won 0-3 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Adana Demirspor
2
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 4, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2025, when Adana Demirspor 1-1 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 53%, Antalyaspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Adana Demirspor and 53% for Antalyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor have failed to score in 30% of games; Antalyaspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Antalyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Adana Demirspor's games and 60% of Antalyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 53% of Antalyaspor's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor and Antalyaspor finished level at 1-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.53 xG and Antalyaspor 1.75 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.59 against Antalyaspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 32% | Draw 26% | Antalyaspor 42%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 60%, Antalyaspor 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 0.87 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.