Trabzonspor 2-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Trabzonspor take on Sivasspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sivasspor make the trip to Medical Park Stadyumu to face Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Monday 23 August 2021 at 17:15 UTC.
Form
Trabzonspor (all games): 1W 0D 0L across 1 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 5.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sivasspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Sivasspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 3.00 in Trabzonspor's favour (3.00 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 0.90 xG and Sivasspor 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 0.973 / defence 1.150 | Sivasspor attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.801 / away 1.156. Data: 1 Trabzonspor games / 1 Sivasspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 25% | Draw 38% | Sivasspor 37%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 4.00 | Draw 2.63 | Sivasspor 2.70. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Form averages suggest ~3.0 goals/game but Poisson Over 2.5 probability is only 33% — the model is applying a significant defensive adjustment; treat Over 2.5 with caution despite form.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 25% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Medical Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 23 Aug 2021, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 25% | Draw 38% | Sivasspor 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Trabzonspor 0.90 / Sivasspor 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 0.973 / def 1.150 | Sivasspor attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.801 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Sivasspor xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:15 on Monday 23 August 2021 at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor?
Trabzonspor 2 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 25% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 37% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Trabzonspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Sivasspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trabzonspor and Sivasspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 5.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W. Sivasspor (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (0.85x) against Trabzonspor's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
25%
3.97
38%
2.66
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.03
1.13
Sivasspor xG
3.97
25%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
8%
12.30
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 14.9 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.13 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Trabzonspor come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sivasspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Trabzonspor are averaging 5.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Trabzonspor's scoring rate against Sivasspor's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Sivasspor in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Early Season
Sivasspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 4-0 on 20 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
2
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 3, Sivasspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2025, when Trabzonspor 4-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Sivasspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 0% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 0% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trabzonspor defy the odds to beat Sivasspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Sivasspor 2-1 at Medical Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 0.90 xG and Sivasspor 1.13 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Sivasspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 25% | Draw 38% | Sivasspor 37%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a Trabzonspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 100%, Sivasspor 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Trabzonspor managed 2 against a 5.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Sivasspor scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.