Trabzonspor 2-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trabzonspor host Samsunspor at Papara Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 11 January 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Papara Park, Trabzonspor have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Samsunspor stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's away record: 1W 1D 7L from 9 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.44 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Samsunspor in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 56% versus Samsunspor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 56% | Samsunspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.83 xG and Samsunspor 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 0.926 / defence 0.862 | Samsunspor attack 0.806 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.280. Samsunspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing Trabzonspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Trabzonspor games / 18 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 58% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Samsunspor 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 60% | Samsunspor 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Jan 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 58% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Trabzonspor 1.83 / Samsunspor 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 0.926 / def 0.862 | Samsunspor attack 0.806 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Samsunspor xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 11 January 2024 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor?
Trabzonspor 2 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 58% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Trabzonspor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Samsunspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trabzonspor and Samsunspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Samsunspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Samsunspor's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
58%
1.72
26%
3.92
16%
6.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.72
0.89
Samsunspor xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
6.12
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
3%
38.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.89 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 10W 3D 5L from 18 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Samsunspor, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 10L across 18 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Samsunspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 5W 1D 2L from 8 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Samsunspor's away record stands at 1W 0D 7L across 8 trips, a 0.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.11 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Samsunspor in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 10W 3D 5L in their last 18 games (1.83 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 5W 3D 10L in their last 18 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Samsunspor runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Feb 2026, when Trabzonspor won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 2, Samsunspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Samsunspor 0-3 Trabzonspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 50%, Samsunspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Trabzonspor) and 50% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Samsunspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 50% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 50% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Samsunspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Samsunspor 2-1 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.83 xG and Samsunspor 0.89 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 0.93 / defence 0.86 against Samsunspor attack 0.81 / defence 1.32, drawn from 53/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 58% | Draw 26% | Samsunspor 16%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 56%, Samsunspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Samsunspor's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.