Trabzonspor 1-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Beşiktaş travel to Papara Park to take on Trabzonspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Trabzonspor at Papara Park this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Beşiktaş — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Trabzonspor 2.00 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 2, Beşiktaş 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2024, ended 0–2 with Beşiktaş winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Trabzonspor trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Beşiktaş trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 55% versus Beşiktaş 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 55% | Beşiktaş 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.54 xG and Beşiktaş 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.173 / defence 1.014 | Beşiktaş attack 1.029 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.299. Data: 40 Trabzonspor games / 41 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 41% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 33%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Beşiktaş 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 60% | Beşiktaş 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 41% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Trabzonspor 1.54 / Beşiktaş 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.173 / def 1.014 | Beşiktaş attack 1.029 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Beşiktaş xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Trabzonspor 1 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 41% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (6 meetings): Trabzonspor 2W | Draws 3 | Beşiktaş 1W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
41%
2.41
26%
3.91
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.90
1.36
Beşiktaş xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
7%
14.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.36 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trabzonspor come into this having played 40 games, going 21W 6D 13L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.55 PPG from 40 outings (18W 8D 14L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 1.72 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Trabzonspor's home form reads 12W 1D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.16 points per game from 19 outings (6W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.48 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Early Season
Beşiktaş
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 21W 6D 13L in their last 40 games (1.72 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 18W 8D 14L in their last 40 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Trabzonspor's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 1.95 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2023, when Trabzonspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
5
Draws
2
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 3, Beşiktaş have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Beşiktaş 1-2 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 58%, Beşiktaş 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Trabzonspor) and 53% (Beşiktaş). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Trabzonspor's games and 53% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Trabzonspor's matches and 53% of Beşiktaş's.
Do Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Papara Park, Regular Season - 5, as Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.54 xG and Beşiktaş 1.36 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.17 / defence 1.01 against Beşiktaş attack 1.03 / defence 0.88, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 41% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 33%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 55%, Beşiktaş 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.72 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.