Sivasspor 1-0 İstanbulspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sivasspor at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
İstanbulspor make the trip to BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu to face Sivasspor in Süper Lig (matchday 18). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 December 2023 at 10:30 UK time.
Form
Sivasspor (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sivasspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 6D 3L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
İstanbulspor's record over their last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, İstanbulspor have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Sivasspor's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of İstanbulspor's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Sivasspor, 1 for İstanbulspor and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Mar 2023, ended Sivasspor 0–3 İstanbulspor — a İstanbulspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sivasspor — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
İstanbulspor — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 62% versus İstanbulspor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 56% | İstanbulspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.60 xG and İstanbulspor 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.863 / defence 1.066 | İstanbulspor attack 0.684 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.275. İstanbulspor's attack rating of 0.684 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Sivasspor's last 52 games and İstanbulspor's last 52.
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 52% | Draw 27% | İstanbulspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 1.91 | Draw 3.76 | İstanbulspor 4.73. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sivasspor as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sivasspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sivasspor 70% (last 10 home games) | İstanbulspor 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 18 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 23 December 2023 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 52% | Draw 27% | İstanbulspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Sivasspor 1.60 / İstanbulspor 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.863 / def 1.066 | İstanbulspor attack 0.684 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.93
İstanbulspor xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor FAQs
What time does Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Saturday 23 December 2023 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor?
Sivasspor 1 - 0 İstanbulspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor part of?
Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 18) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 52% chance of winning, İstanbulspor a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sivasspor and İstanbulspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sivasspor's attack at 0.86x the league average against İstanbulspor's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — İstanbulspor's attack (0.68x) against Sivasspor's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Sivasspor's last 52 games and İstanbulspor's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.76
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.53
0.93
İstanbulspor xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
4%
23.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and İstanbulspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.93 for İstanbulspor, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sivasspor come into this having played 52 games, going 15W 14D 23L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, İstanbulspor sit at 0.94 PPG from 52 outings (14W 7D 31L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Sivasspor against 0.94 for İstanbulspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sivasspor's home form reads 5W 12D 8L across their last 25 home games, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, İstanbulspor have taken 0.84 points per game from their last 25 away games (6W 3D 16L).
Attack vs Defence
Sivasspor are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; İstanbulspor are on 1.13 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
İstanbulspor
Blended
Sivasspor (Home) vs İstanbulspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sivasspor
Blended
İstanbulspor
Blended
❓ Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor Form FAQs
What form are Sivasspor and İstanbulspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 15W 14D 23L in their last 52 games (1.13 PPG), while İstanbulspor have gone 14W 7D 31L in their last 52 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or İstanbulspor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.08 PPG; İstanbulspor away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Sivasspor and İstanbulspor, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 17 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Sivasspor have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: İstanbulspor won İstanbulspor 3-0 Sivasspor on 13 Mar 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sivasspor have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against İstanbulspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
1
Draws
1
İstanbulspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and İstanbulspor?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sivasspor have won 2, İstanbulspor have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and İstanbulspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2024: İstanbulspor 1-3 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and İstanbulspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 68%, İstanbulspor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sivasspor) and 56% (İstanbulspor).
On the defensive side: İstanbulspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / İstanbulspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sivasspor vs İstanbulspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sivasspor and İstanbulspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Sivasspor's games and 44% of İstanbulspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sivasspor and İstanbulspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sivasspor's recent games and 56% of İstanbulspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and İstanbulspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 78% of İstanbulspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sivasspor edge out İstanbulspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat İstanbulspor 1-0 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.60 xG and İstanbulspor 0.93 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. İstanbulspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against İstanbulspor attack 0.68 / defence 1.18, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 52% | Draw 27% | İstanbulspor 21%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 56%, İstanbulspor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
İstanbulspor's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.13 PPG, İstanbulspor 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.