Sivasspor 1-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sivasspor host Rizespor at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sivasspor — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's home record at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Rizespor have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Rizespor have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sivasspor at 1.50 PPG versus Rizespor's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sivasspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rizespor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Sivasspor have won 1, Rizespor 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sivasspor trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Rizespor trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 62% versus Rizespor 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 46% | Rizespor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.86 xG and Rizespor 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.922 / defence 0.936 | Rizespor attack 0.770 / defence 1.363. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.173. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.363 — this is suppressing Sivasspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Sivasspor games / 24 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 59% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 14%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Rizespor 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Sivasspor (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 60% | Rizespor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 59% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG Sivasspor 1.86 / Rizespor 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.922 / def 0.936 | Rizespor attack 0.770 / def 1.363 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Rizespor xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Rizespor?
Sivasspor 1 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Rizespor part of?
Sivasspor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 59% chance of winning, Rizespor a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sivasspor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Rizespor?
Record (3 meetings): Sivasspor 1W | Draws 2 | Rizespor 0W.
What form are Sivasspor and Rizespor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Rizespor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sivasspor's attack at 0.92x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
59%
1.69
27%
3.77
14%
6.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.70
0.84
Rizespor xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
6.96
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
16%
6.41
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
2%
44.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 10.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.84 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sivasspor come into this having played 24 games, going 7W 9D 8L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.50 PPG from 24 outings (10W 6D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.25 PPG, Rizespor on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sivasspor's home form reads 2W 7D 2L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 0.82 points per game from 11 outings (2W 3D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
The Goals Picture
Sivasspor are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.12 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Rizespor in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 7W 9D 8L in their last 24 games (1.25 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 10W 6D 8L in their last 24 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Rizespor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.18 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Rizespor in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sivasspor and Rizespor runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sivasspor's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sivasspor
3
Draws
0
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Rizespor?
From 6 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 3, Rizespor have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Rizespor 1-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Rizespor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 64%, Rizespor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Sivasspor) and 73% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sivasspor's games and 64% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Sivasspor's recent games and 73% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sivasspor edge out Rizespor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Rizespor 1-0 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.86 xG and Rizespor 0.84 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sivasspor fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Rizespor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.92 / defence 0.94 against Rizespor attack 0.77 / defence 1.36, drawn from 60/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 59% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 14%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 46%, Rizespor 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Rizespor's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.25 PPG, Rizespor 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.