Sivasspor 2-2 Ümraniyespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Ümraniyespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 14 as Sivasspor welcome Ümraniyespor to Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Sivasspor have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sivasspor are significantly better at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Ümraniyespor — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ümraniyespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ümraniyespor's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sivasspor 0.80 PPG, Ümraniyespor 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sivasspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ümraniyespor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Sivasspor trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Ümraniyespor trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 42% versus Ümraniyespor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 42% | Ümraniyespor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.51 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.769 / defence 0.941 | Ümraniyespor attack 0.931 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.329. Sivasspor's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ümraniyespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing Sivasspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Sivasspor games / 12 Ümraniyespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 45% | Draw 26% | Ümraniyespor 29%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Ümraniyespor 3.45. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sivasspor as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 60% | Ümraniyespor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Ümraniyespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 45% | Draw 26% | Ümraniyespor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Sivasspor 1.51 / Ümraniyespor 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.769 / def 0.941 | Ümraniyespor attack 0.931 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Ümraniyespor xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Ümraniyespor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Ümraniyespor kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Sivasspor 2 - 2 Ümraniyespor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Ümraniyespor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Ümraniyespor part of?
Sivasspor vs Ümraniyespor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 45% chance of winning, Ümraniyespor a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sivasspor and Ümraniyespor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Ümraniyespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Ümraniyespor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sivasspor and Ümraniyespor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Ümraniyespor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sivasspor's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Ümraniyespor's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Ümraniyespor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
45%
2.23
26%
3.78
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.68
1.17
Ümraniyespor xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
6%
15.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Ümraniyespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.17 for Ümraniyespor, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sivasspor's recent record stands at 2W 3D 7L from 12 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ümraniyespor, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 8L across 12 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ümraniyespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 0.75 PPG, Ümraniyespor on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sivasspor have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ümraniyespor's away record stands at 0W 2D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sivasspor are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Ümraniyespor are on 1.08 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Ümraniyespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Ümraniyespor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 2W 3D 7L in their last 12 games (0.75 PPG), while Ümraniyespor have gone 1W 3D 8L in their last 12 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Ümraniyespor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.00 PPG; Ümraniyespor away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sivasspor
1
Draws
1
Ümraniyespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Ümraniyespor?
From 2 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 0, Ümraniyespor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Ümraniyespor last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Ümraniyespor 4-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Ümraniyespor?
Ümraniyespor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Ümraniyespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 40%, Ümraniyespor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sivasspor) and 40% (Ümraniyespor).
On the defensive side: Sivasspor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sivasspor have failed to score in 40% of games; Ümraniyespor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Ümraniyespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Ümraniyespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 60% of Ümraniyespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sivasspor vs Ümraniyespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sivasspor's recent games and 40% of Ümraniyespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Ümraniyespor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Ümraniyespor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor and Ümraniyespor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor and Ümraniyespor finished level at 2-2 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.51 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.17 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ümraniyespor outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.77 / defence 0.94 against Ümraniyespor attack 0.93 / defence 1.32, drawn from 51/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 45% | Draw 26% | Ümraniyespor 29%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 42%, Ümraniyespor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 0.75 PPG, Ümraniyespor 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ümraniyespor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.