Sivasspor 1-0 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alanyaspor make the trip to Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu to face Sivasspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Monday 25 April 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Sivasspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Sivasspor have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sivasspor are significantly better at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Alanyaspor have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Alanyaspor's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Sivasspor, 1.40 for Alanyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Alanyaspor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sivasspor lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Sivasspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Sivasspor half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sivasspor 64% and Alanyaspor 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 48% | Alanyaspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.49 xG and Alanyaspor 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.944 / defence 1.203 | Alanyaspor attack 1.068 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.237. Alanyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing Sivasspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Sivasspor games / 33 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 34% | Draw 28% | Alanyaspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Alanyaspor 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 60% | Alanyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 25 Apr 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 34% | Draw 28% | Alanyaspor 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Sivasspor 1.49 / Alanyaspor 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.944 / def 1.203 | Alanyaspor attack 1.068 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Alanyaspor xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 18:30 on Monday 25 April 2022 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor?
Sivasspor 1 - 0 Alanyaspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 34% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sivasspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Sivasspor 1W | Draws 0 | Alanyaspor 0W.
What form are Sivasspor and Alanyaspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sivasspor's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (1.07x) against Sivasspor's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
34%
2.93
28%
3.64
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
3.08
1.59
Alanyaspor xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
7%
14.35
9%
11.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.59 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sivasspor's recent record stands at 10W 12D 11L from 33 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 11L across 33 games — 1.58 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Sivasspor against 1.58 for Alanyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sivasspor have managed 5W 8D 3L from 16 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 8W 3D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sivasspor are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.79 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Alanyaspor in 61%.
Last 33 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 10W 12D 11L in their last 33 games (1.27 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 15W 7D 11L in their last 33 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.44 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sivasspor won 0-3 on 31 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sivasspor have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Sivasspor
2
Draws
2
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Alanyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 4, Alanyaspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2025, when Alanyaspor 2-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Alanyaspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 62%, Alanyaspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sivasspor) and 56% (Alanyaspor).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sivasspor's games and 56% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sivasspor's recent games and 56% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sivasspor defy the odds to beat Alanyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Alanyaspor 1-0 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.49 xG and Alanyaspor 1.59 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alanyaspor landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.20 against Alanyaspor attack 1.07 / defence 1.29, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 34% | Draw 28% | Alanyaspor 38%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Sivasspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 48%, Alanyaspor 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.27 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.