Sivasspor 1-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Adana Demirspor at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Adana Demirspor travel to BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu to take on Sivasspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 November 2023, 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's home record at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Adana Demirspor stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Adana Demirspor have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Adana Demirspor are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sivasspor, 2 for Adana Demirspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sivasspor 61% and Adana Demirspor 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 54% | Adana Demirspor 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.17 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.697 / defence 0.996 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.999 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.214. Sivasspor's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Sivasspor games / 46 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 33% | Draw 33% | Adana Demirspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Adana Demirspor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Adana Demirspor as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 70% | Adana Demirspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 33% | Draw 33% | Adana Demirspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Sivasspor 1.17 / Adana Demirspor 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.697 / def 0.996 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.999 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Adana Demirspor xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Sivasspor 1 - 1 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 33% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (4 meetings): Sivasspor 1W | Draws 1 | Adana Demirspor 2W.
What form are Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sivasspor's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
33%
3.04
33%
3.08
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.38
1.21
Adana Demirspor xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.08
33%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
10%
10.18
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.21 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sivasspor come into this having played 46 games, going 14W 12D 20L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 1.93 PPG from 46 outings (26W 11D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sivasspor's home form reads 5W 9D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 1.41 points per game from 22 outings (8W 7D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Adana Demirspor's season.
The Goals Picture
Sivasspor are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 2.13 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Adana Demirspor in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 14W 12D 20L in their last 46 games (1.17 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 26W 11D 9L in their last 46 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Adana Demirspor's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.09 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sivasspor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Sivasspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sivasspor
2
Draws
3
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 3, Adana Demirspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Sivasspor 5-1 Adana Demirspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sivasspor at 64%, Adana Demirspor at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Sivasspor) and 59% (Adana Demirspor).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sivasspor's games and 73% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Sivasspor's recent games and 59% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor finished level at 1-1 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.17 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.21 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.70 / defence 1.00 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.15, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 33% | Draw 33% | Adana Demirspor 35%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 54%, Adana Demirspor 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.