Rizespor 2-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 37%, yet in-form Antalyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rizespor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antalyaspor make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 4 October 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rizespor have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rizespor's home record at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Antalyaspor (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Antalyaspor are 0.70 PPG clear of Rizespor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.20 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rizespor lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 3–0 with Rizespor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 40% versus Antalyaspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 53% | Antalyaspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.35 xG and Antalyaspor 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.718 / defence 1.082 | Antalyaspor attack 0.928 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.315. Rizespor's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Antalyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Rizespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Rizespor games / 45 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 37% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Antalyaspor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Antalyaspor (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 40% | Antalyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 4 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 37% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Rizespor 1.35 / Antalyaspor 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.718 / def 1.082 | Antalyaspor attack 0.928 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Antalyaspor xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 4 October 2024 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Rizespor 2 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Rizespor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 37% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Rizespor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Antalyaspor?
Record (4 meetings): Rizespor 2W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Antalyaspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rizespor's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.93x) against Rizespor's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
37%
2.72
28%
3.59
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.67
1.32
Antalyaspor xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.32 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor come into this having played 45 games, going 15W 9D 21L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.27 PPG from 45 outings (14W 15D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Rizespor against 1.27 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Rizespor's home form reads 11W 5D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.82 points per game from 22 outings (4W 6D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.18 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antalyaspor in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Antalyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 15W 9D 21L in their last 45 games (1.20 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 14W 15D 16L in their last 45 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.73 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Rizespor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won 3-0 on 14 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Rizespor
1
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Antalyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 5, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Rizespor 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Antalyaspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 32%, Antalyaspor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Rizespor) and 54% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 32% of games; Antalyaspor in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Rizespor's recent matches and 64% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Rizespor's recent games and 54% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Antalyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Antalyaspor 2-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.35 xG and Antalyaspor 1.32 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.72 / defence 1.08 against Antalyaspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.27, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 37% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 35%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 53%, Antalyaspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.20 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.