Konyaspor 0-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Samsunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu plays host to Konyaspor versus Samsunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Konyaspor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 3W 5D 2L at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Samsunspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Samsunspor arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Konyaspor 2W, Samsunspor 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Konyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Samsunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 57% versus Samsunspor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 43% | Samsunspor 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.63 xG and Samsunspor 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.098 / defence 1.152 | Samsunspor attack 0.832 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.211. Data: 60 Konyaspor games / 60 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 47% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Samsunspor 3.85. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Konyaspor dominate the H2H record, yet Samsunspor are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Samsunspor (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 80% | Samsunspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 47% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Konyaspor 1.63 / Samsunspor 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 1.098 / def 1.152 | Samsunspor attack 0.832 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Samsunspor xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Konyaspor 0 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 47% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Konyaspor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Samsunspor?
Record (3 meetings): Konyaspor 2W | Draws 1 | Samsunspor 0W.
What form are Konyaspor and Samsunspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (1.10) and Samsunspor's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (0.83x) against Konyaspor's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.74
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.79
1.16
Samsunspor xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
5%
19.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.16 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Konyaspor come into this having played 60 games, going 15W 20D 25L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.43 PPG from 60 outings (24W 14D 22L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.43 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Konyaspor's home form reads 9W 10D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 0.93 points per game from 29 outings (7W 6D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.30 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 15W 20D 25L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.28 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 3-0 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
2
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Samsunspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Samsunspor 2-2 Konyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 59%, Samsunspor 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Konyaspor) and 48% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Samsunspor in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 45% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Konyaspor's recent games and 48% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Samsunspor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Konyaspor 0-1 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.63 xG and Samsunspor 1.16 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Konyaspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.10 / defence 1.15 against Samsunspor attack 0.83 / defence 0.90, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 47% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 26%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Samsunspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 43%, Samsunspor 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Samsunspor's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.08 PPG, Samsunspor 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.