Kayserispor 1-2 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kayserispor host Trabzonspor at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kayserispor — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Kayserispor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı, Kayserispor have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kayserispor 1.60 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Kayserispor, 2 for Trabzonspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2022, ended 2–3 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kayserispor in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 53% versus Trabzonspor 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 53% | Trabzonspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.84 xG and Trabzonspor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.076 / defence 0.752 | Trabzonspor attack 1.137 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.248. Kayserispor's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Kayserispor games / 45 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 56% | Draw 23% | Trabzonspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Trabzonspor 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Kayserispor (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kayserispor are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 50% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Kadir Has Şehir Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 56% | Draw 23% | Trabzonspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Kayserispor 1.84 / Trabzonspor 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.076 / def 0.752 | Trabzonspor attack 1.137 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Trabzonspor xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Kayserispor 1 - 2 Trabzonspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 56% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Kayserispor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor?
Record (2 meetings): Kayserispor 0W | Draws 0 | Trabzonspor 2W.
What form are Kayserispor and Trabzonspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kayserispor's attack at 1.08x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
56%
1.80
23%
4.40
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.91
1.07
Trabzonspor xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
3%
29.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.07 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 16W 11D 18L from 45 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kayserispor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 27W 13D 5L across 45 games — 2.09 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kayserispor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 13W 4D 5L from 22 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Trabzonspor's away record stands at 12W 5D 5L across 22 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Kayserispor are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.78 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 64%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 16W 11D 18L in their last 45 games (1.31 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 27W 13D 5L in their last 45 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.95 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Oct 2025, when Trabzonspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
2
Draws
6
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Kayserispor 1-3 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 46%, Trabzonspor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Kayserispor) and 54% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 64% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Kayserispor's recent games and 54% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trabzonspor defy the odds to beat Kayserispor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Kayserispor 1-2 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.84 xG and Trabzonspor 1.07 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Kayserispor fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Trabzonspor outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.08 / defence 0.75 against Trabzonspor attack 1.14 / defence 1.19, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 56% | Draw 23% | Trabzonspor 22%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Trabzonspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 53%, Trabzonspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Kayserispor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.