Hatayspor 1-1 Giresunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Giresunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Giresunspor travel to Yeni Hatay Stadyumu to take on Hatayspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 December 2022, 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Hatayspor have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Giresunspor — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Giresunspor's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hatayspor 1.40 PPG, Giresunspor 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Hatayspor have won 2, Giresunspor 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 4–1 with Hatayspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hatayspor trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Giresunspor trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 53% versus Giresunspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 57% | Giresunspor 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.64 xG and Giresunspor 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 1.041 / defence 1.085 | Giresunspor attack 0.832 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.442. Data: 51 Hatayspor games / 51 Giresunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 45% | Draw 25% | Giresunspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Giresunspor 3.33. Hatayspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hatayspor are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hatayspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 70% | Giresunspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Giresunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Dec 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 45% | Draw 25% | Giresunspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Hatayspor 1.64 / Giresunspor 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 1.041 / def 1.085 | Giresunspor attack 0.832 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Giresunspor xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Giresunspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Giresunspor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 24 December 2022 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Giresunspor?
Hatayspor 1 - 1 Giresunspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Giresunspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Giresunspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Giresunspor is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Giresunspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 45% chance of winning, Giresunspor a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Giresunspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hatayspor and Giresunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Giresunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Giresunspor?
Record (2 meetings): Hatayspor 2W | Draws 0 | Giresunspor 0W.
What form are Hatayspor and Giresunspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Giresunspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hatayspor's attack at 1.04x the league average against Giresunspor's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Giresunspor's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
45%
2.22
25%
4.03
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.94
1.30
Giresunspor xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
6%
16.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.3 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Giresunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Giresunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.30 for Giresunspor, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Giresunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Hatayspor have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 19W 10D 22L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Giresunspor's form line: 16W 12D 23L from 51 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hatayspor on 1.31 PPG, Giresunspor on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hatayspor have posted 1.72 PPG from 25 outings (12W 7D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Giresunspor have gone 7W 6D 12L from 25 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hatayspor are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Giresunspor are on 1.06 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Giresunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Giresunspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 19W 10D 22L in their last 51 games (1.31 PPG), while Giresunspor have gone 16W 12D 23L in their last 51 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Giresunspor away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.72 PPG; Giresunspor away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when Hatayspor won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hatayspor's record when hosting Giresunspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
1
Draws
1
Giresunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Giresunspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Giresunspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Giresunspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2023, when Giresunspor 3-0 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Giresunspor?
Hatayspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 64%, Giresunspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Hatayspor) and 48% (Giresunspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Giresunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Giresunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Hatayspor's games and 56% of Giresunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Giresunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Hatayspor's matches and 48% of Giresunspor's.
Do Hatayspor and Giresunspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Giresunspor in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hatayspor and Giresunspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor and Giresunspor finished level at 1-1 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.64 xG and Giresunspor 1.30 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 1.04 / defence 1.08 against Giresunspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 45% | Draw 25% | Giresunspor 30%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 57%, Giresunspor 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Giresunspor's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 1.31 PPG, Giresunspor 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.