Hatayspor 0-1 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Eyüpspor travel to Mersin Stadyumu to take on Hatayspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's home record at Mersin Stadyumu: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eyüpspor — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hatayspor at 1.00 PPG versus Eyüpspor's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hatayspor register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Eyüpspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hatayspor, 1 for Eyüpspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Eyüpspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hatayspor trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Eyüpspor trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hatayspor 61% and Eyüpspor 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 50% | Eyüpspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.40 xG and Eyüpspor 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.900 / defence 1.195 | Eyüpspor attack 0.927 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.207. Data: 65 Hatayspor games / 28 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 38% | Draw 26% | Eyüpspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Eyüpspor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hatayspor at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hatayspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 80% | Eyüpspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 38% | Draw 26% | Eyüpspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Hatayspor 1.40 / Eyüpspor 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.900 / def 1.195 | Eyüpspor attack 0.927 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Eyüpspor xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor?
Hatayspor 0 - 1 Eyüpspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 38% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hatayspor and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Eyüpspor?
Record (1 meetings): Hatayspor 0W | Draws 0 | Eyüpspor 1W.
What form are Hatayspor and Eyüpspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hatayspor's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Eyüpspor's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
38%
2.61
26%
3.80
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.74
1.34
Eyüpspor xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.34 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hatayspor come into this having played 28 games, going 5W 7D 16L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 1.57 PPG from 28 outings (12W 8D 8L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Eyüpspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hatayspor's home form reads 3W 5D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Eyüpspor have taken 1.21 points per game from 14 outings (4W 5D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Hatayspor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.46 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hatayspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Eyüpspor in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Eyüpspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 5W 7D 16L in their last 28 games (0.79 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 12W 8D 8L in their last 28 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Eyüpspor's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.00 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hatayspor and Eyüpspor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hatayspor
0
Draws
2
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Eyüpspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 0, Eyüpspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Hatayspor 0-1 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Eyüpspor?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hatayspor at 71%, Eyüpspor at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Hatayspor) and 43% (Eyüpspor).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Eyüpspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Hatayspor's games and 64% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Hatayspor's recent games and 43% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatayspor and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Eyüpspor defy the odds to beat Hatayspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Hatayspor 0-1 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.40 xG and Eyüpspor 1.34 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hatayspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.20 against Eyüpspor attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 65/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 38% | Draw 26% | Eyüpspor 35%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Eyüpspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 50%, Eyüpspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.79. Form held, and they took the win. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.