Giresunspor 0-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Giresunspor vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Giresunspor host Konyaspor at Çotanak Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Giresunspor stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Giresunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Giresunspor at Çotanak Stadyumu this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Konyaspor — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Konyaspor are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Giresunspor, 1 for Konyaspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Konyaspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Giresunspor in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Giresunspor 50% versus Konyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Giresunspor 43% | Konyaspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Giresunspor 1.19 xG and Konyaspor 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Giresunspor attack 0.932 / defence 0.978 | Konyaspor attack 1.176 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.222. Data: 42 Giresunspor games / 42 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Giresunspor 32% | Draw 26% | Konyaspor 42%. Fair-value odds: Giresunspor 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Konyaspor 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Giresunspor 70% | Konyaspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Giresunspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Çotanak Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Giresunspor 32% | Draw 26% | Konyaspor 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Giresunspor 1.19 / Konyaspor 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Giresunspor attack 0.932 / def 0.978 | Konyaspor attack 1.176 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Giresunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Konyaspor xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Giresunspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Giresunspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Giresunspor vs Konyaspor?
Giresunspor 0 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Giresunspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Çotanak Stadyumu.
What competition is Giresunspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Giresunspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Giresunspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Giresunspor a 32% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Giresunspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Giresunspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Giresunspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Konyaspor?
Record (2 meetings): Giresunspor 0W | Draws 1 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Giresunspor and Konyaspor in?
Giresunspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Giresunspor's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Giresunspor's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
32%
3.14
26%
3.81
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Giresunspor xG
Total xG
2.60
1.41
Konyaspor xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
8%
12.80
13%
7.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Giresunspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Giresunspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Giresunspor and 1.41 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Giresunspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Giresunspor's recent record stands at 14W 9D 19L from 42 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Giresunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Konyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 22W 10D 10L across 42 games — 1.81 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Konyaspor by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Giresunspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Giresunspor have managed 8W 5D 8L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Konyaspor's away record stands at 8W 5D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Konyaspor's season.
The Goals Picture
Giresunspor are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.69 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Giresunspor
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Giresunspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Giresunspor have gone 14W 9D 19L in their last 42 games (1.21 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 22W 10D 10L in their last 42 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Giresunspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Giresunspor's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Giresunspor at home: 1.38 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Giresunspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Giresunspor have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Giresunspor and Konyaspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Giresunspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Giresunspor
2
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Giresunspor and Konyaspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Giresunspor have won 0, Konyaspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Giresunspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Konyaspor 0-0 Giresunspor.
Who has won more matches between Giresunspor and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Giresunspor 52%, Konyaspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Giresunspor) and 62% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Giresunspor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Giresunspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Giresunspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Giresunspor's games and 67% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Giresunspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Giresunspor's recent games and 62% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Giresunspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Giresunspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Giresunspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Giresunspor 0-1 at Çotanak Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Giresunspor 1.19 xG and Konyaspor 1.41 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Giresunspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Giresunspor attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Konyaspor attack 1.18 / defence 0.86, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Giresunspor 32% | Draw 26% | Konyaspor 42%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Giresunspor 43%, Konyaspor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Giresunspor's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Konyaspor's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Giresunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Konyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.