Gaziantep FK 0-3 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Konyaspor make the trip to Gaziantep Stadyumu to face Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 April 2023 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gaziantep FK have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK at Gaziantep Stadyumu this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Konyaspor (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Gaziantep FK, 0.90 for Konyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Gaziantep FK register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Konyaspor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Gaziantep FK 2W, Konyaspor 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Gaziantep FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Gaziantep FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 56% versus Konyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 53% | Konyaspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.40 xG and Konyaspor 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.794 / defence 1.252 | Konyaspor attack 1.095 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.267. Gaziantep FK's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Gaziantep FK games / 65 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 31% | Draw 23% | Konyaspor 46%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | Konyaspor 2.17. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gaziantep FK 80% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 31% | Draw 23% | Konyaspor 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Gaziantep FK 1.40 / Konyaspor 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.794 / def 1.252 | Konyaspor attack 1.095 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Konyaspor xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor?
Gaziantep FK 0 - 3 Konyaspor.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 31% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor?
Record (3 meetings): Gaziantep FK 2W | Draws 0 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor in?
Gaziantep FK (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (0.79) and Konyaspor's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.09x) against Gaziantep FK's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 64/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
31%
3.22
23%
4.28
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
3.13
1.74
Konyaspor xG
3.22
31%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
5%
18.25
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.74 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gaziantep FK come into this having played 64 games, going 18W 17D 29L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.58 PPG from 64 outings (27W 20D 17L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Konyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Gaziantep FK's home form reads 14W 11D 6L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Gaziantep FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 1.29 points per game from 31 outings (10W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gaziantep FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.52 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 18W 17D 29L in their last 64 games (1.11 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 27W 20D 17L in their last 64 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Konyaspor away?
Gaziantep FK's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.71 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Gaziantep FK or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 4-1 on 17 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gaziantep FK
2
Draws
5
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Gaziantep FK have won 3, Konyaspor have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gaziantep FK see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Gaziantep FK, 68% for Konyaspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Gaziantep FK) and 64% (Konyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gaziantep FK play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Gaziantep FK's games and 68% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gaziantep FK vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 64% of Konyaspor's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Gaziantep FK have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Konyaspor run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Gaziantep FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Gaziantep FK 0-3 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.40 xG and Konyaspor 1.74 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Gaziantep FK fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Konyaspor outscored their 1.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.79 / defence 1.25 against Konyaspor attack 1.09 / defence 1.02, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 31% | Draw 23% | Konyaspor 46%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 53%, Konyaspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Konyaspor's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.