Göztepe 2-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Göztepe at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Göztepe vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu plays host to Göztepe versus Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Göztepe have collected 1.50 PPG across 8 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 1.25 conceded. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Göztepe's home record at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu: 3W 1D 0L from 4 Süper Lig appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Göztepe are significantly better at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Trabzonspor (all games): 4W 6D 0L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Göztepe, 1.80 for Trabzonspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Göztepe 0W, Trabzonspor 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 2–4 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Göztepe — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 50% versus Trabzonspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Göztepe 50% | Trabzonspor 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.34 xG and Trabzonspor 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 1.277 / defence 1.004 | Trabzonspor attack 0.739 / defence 0.727. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.334. Göztepe carry an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — their λ of 1.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Trabzonspor's defence strength of 0.727 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 8 Göztepe games / 46 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 44% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Trabzonspor 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Göztepe if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Göztepe 50% | Trabzonspor 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 44% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Göztepe 1.34 / Trabzonspor 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 1.277 / def 1.004 | Trabzonspor attack 0.739 / def 0.727 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Trabzonspor xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Göztepe vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Göztepe 2 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Göztepe vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu.
What competition is Göztepe vs Trabzonspor part of?
Göztepe vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 44% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Göztepe and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Trabzonspor?
Record (2 meetings): Göztepe 0W | Draws 0 | Trabzonspor 2W.
What form are Göztepe and Trabzonspor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Göztepe's attack rating (1.28) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (0.74x) against Göztepe's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.52
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.33
0.99
Trabzonspor xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
7%
13.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Göztepe and 0.99 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Göztepe come into this having played 8 games, going 3W 3D 2L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trabzonspor sit at 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (2W 6D 0L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Göztepe against 1.50 for Trabzonspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Göztepe's home form reads 3W 1D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Göztepe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Trabzonspor have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (0W 4D 0L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Göztepe are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.00 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Trabzonspor in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 games (1.50 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 2W 6D 0L in their last 8 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Trabzonspor away?
Göztepe's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 2.50 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Göztepe have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Göztepe
2
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Trabzonspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 1, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Trabzonspor 1-1 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Göztepe and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Trabzonspor tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 50%, Trabzonspor 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Göztepe) and 0% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 75%; Trabzonspor in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Göztepe's recent matches and 25% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Göztepe vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Göztepe's recent games and 0% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Göztepe edge out Trabzonspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Trabzonspor 2-1 at Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.34 xG and Trabzonspor 0.99 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 1.28 / defence 1.00 against Trabzonspor attack 0.74 / defence 0.73, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 44% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 27%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 50%, Trabzonspor 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.50 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Göztepe win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.