Göztepe 2-2 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Göztepe vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 6 as Göztepe welcome Rizespor to Gursel Aksel Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Göztepe have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Göztepe at Gursel Aksel Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rizespor's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Göztepe at 1.00 PPG versus Rizespor's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Göztepe have won 3, Rizespor 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 5.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2026, ended 3–1 with Göztepe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Göztepe in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Rizespor in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Göztepe 49% versus Rizespor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Göztepe 46% | Rizespor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Göztepe 1.12 xG and Rizespor 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Göztepe attack 0.888 / defence 1.309 | Rizespor attack 1.140 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.176. Data: 39 Göztepe games / 39 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Göztepe 24% | Draw 24% | Rizespor 52%. Fair-value odds: Göztepe 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | Rizespor 1.92. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rizespor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Göztepe 60% | Rizespor 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Göztepe vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Gursel Aksel Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Göztepe 24% | Draw 24% | Rizespor 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Göztepe 1.12 / Rizespor 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Göztepe attack 0.888 / def 1.309 | Rizespor attack 1.140 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Göztepe xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Rizespor xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Göztepe vs Rizespor kick off?
Göztepe vs Rizespor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Gursel Aksel Stadium.
What was the final score in Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Göztepe 2 - 2 Rizespor.
Where is Göztepe vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Gursel Aksel Stadium.
What competition is Göztepe vs Rizespor part of?
Göztepe vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Göztepe a 24% chance of winning, Rizespor a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Göztepe and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Göztepe vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Rizespor?
Record (6 meetings): Göztepe 3W | Draws 0 | Rizespor 3W.
What form are Göztepe and Rizespor in?
Göztepe (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Rizespor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Göztepe's attack rating (0.89) and Rizespor's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Göztepe's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
24%
4.13
24%
4.25
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Göztepe xG
Total xG
2.88
1.75
Rizespor xG
4.13
24%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
4%
23.87
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Göztepe and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Göztepe and 1.75 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Göztepe vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Göztepe come into this having played 39 games, going 14W 15D 10L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.28 PPG from 39 outings (13W 11D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Göztepe on 1.46 PPG, Rizespor on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Göztepe's home form reads 8W 7D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 1.16 points per game from 19 outings (5W 7D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Göztepe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Göztepe are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.31 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Göztepe
Early Season
Rizespor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Göztepe and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Göztepe have gone 14W 15D 10L in their last 39 games (1.46 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 13W 11D 15L in their last 39 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Göztepe at home or Rizespor away?
Göztepe's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Göztepe at home: 1.63 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Göztepe or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Göztepe have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Rizespor in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Göztepe and Rizespor runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2022, when Rizespor won 1-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Göztepe's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Göztepe
1
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Göztepe and Rizespor?
From 7 meetings on record, Göztepe have won 3, Rizespor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Göztepe and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Göztepe 2-2 Rizespor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Göztepe 47%, Rizespor 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Göztepe) and 58% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Göztepe keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Göztepe have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Göztepe home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Göztepe play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Göztepe's games and 63% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Göztepe vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Göztepe's recent games and 58% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Göztepe and Rizespor tend to score early?
Göztepe have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Göztepe and Rizespor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gursel Aksel Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Göztepe and Rizespor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Göztepe 1.12 xG and Rizespor 1.75 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Göztepe beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Göztepe attack 0.89 / defence 1.31 against Rizespor attack 1.14 / defence 0.80, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Göztepe 24% | Draw 24% | Rizespor 52%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Göztepe 46%, Rizespor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Göztepe's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Rizespor's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Göztepe 1.46 PPG, Rizespor 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Göztepe (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.