Fenerbahçe 5-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fenerbahçe face Kasımpaşa.
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Match Analysis
Fenerbahçe host Kasımpaşa at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 January 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fenerbahçe — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Fenerbahçe have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kasımpaşa have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Fenerbahçe are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Fenerbahçe have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Kasımpaşa have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2022, ended 6–0 with Fenerbahçe winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fenerbahçe and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Fenerbahçe in-play and half-time data (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fenerbahçe 56% versus Kasımpaşa 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fenerbahçe 60% | Kasımpaşa 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fenerbahçe 1.89 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fenerbahçe attack 1.209 / defence 0.950 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.863 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.427. Data: 57 Fenerbahçe games / 57 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 54% | Draw 23% | Kasımpaşa 23%. Fair-value odds: Fenerbahçe 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Kasımpaşa 4.35. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Fenerbahçe 40% | Kasımpaşa 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fenerbahçe 54% | Draw 23% | Kasımpaşa 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Fenerbahçe 1.89 / Kasımpaşa 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Fenerbahçe attack 1.209 / def 0.950 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.863 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Fenerbahçe xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Kasımpaşa xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Fenerbahçe 5 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Fenerbahçe a 54% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa?
Record (3 meetings): Fenerbahçe 3W | Draws 0 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa in?
Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fenerbahçe's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Fenerbahçe's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
54%
1.86
23%
4.33
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Fenerbahçe xG
Total xG
3.06
1.17
Kasımpaşa xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
15%
6.64
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
3%
28.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.17 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fenerbahçe's recent record stands at 34W 12D 11L from 57 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 25L across 57 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kasımpaşa heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fenerbahçe have managed 17W 5D 5L from 27 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 9W 6D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fenerbahçe are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.54 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 63%.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fenerbahçe
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Fenerbahçe have gone 34W 12D 11L in their last 57 games (2.00 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 20W 12D 25L in their last 57 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fenerbahçe at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Fenerbahçe's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fenerbahçe at home: 2.07 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Fenerbahçe or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fenerbahçe have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2022, when Fenerbahçe won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fenerbahçe's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Fenerbahçe
2
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Fenerbahçe have won 8, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Fenerbahçe 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fenerbahçe 52%, Kasımpaşa 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Fenerbahçe) and 52% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fenerbahçe home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fenerbahçe play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Fenerbahçe's recent matches and 56% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Fenerbahçe's matches and 52% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Fenerbahçe and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Fenerbahçe have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Kasımpaşa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Kasımpaşa 5-1 at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fenerbahçe 1.89 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.17 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Fenerbahçe beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fenerbahçe attack 1.21 / defence 0.95 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fenerbahçe 54% | Draw 23% | Kasımpaşa 23%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fenerbahçe 60%, Kasımpaşa 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.