Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fenerbahçe at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe meet at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fatih Karagümrük's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fatih Karagümrük at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı this season: 3W 3D 2L from 8 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fenerbahçe have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fenerbahçe have gone 4W 1D 4L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fatih Karagümrük have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Fenerbahçe in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fatih Karagümrük 53% and Fenerbahçe 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 53% | Fenerbahçe 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.43 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.937 / defence 1.334 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.009 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.177. Fenerbahçe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Fatih Karagümrük's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Fatih Karagümrük games / 17 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 33% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 40%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Fenerbahçe 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Fatih Karagümrük 62% | Fenerbahçe 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 33% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.43 / Fenerbahçe 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.937 / def 1.334 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.009 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Fenerbahçe xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe?
Fatih Karagümrük 1 - 1 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 33% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fatih Karagümrük's attack rating (0.94) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.01x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
33%
2.99
26%
3.80
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
3.01
1.58
Fenerbahçe xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
7%
14.56
10%
10.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.58 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 7W 4D 6L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe's form line: 8W 4D 5L from 17 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Fatih Karagümrük against 1.65 for Fenerbahçe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
On the road, Fenerbahçe have gone 3W 1D 4L from 8 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 1.65 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 71%.
Last 17 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 7W 4D 6L in their last 17 games (1.47 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 8W 4D 5L in their last 17 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.50 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
5
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Fatih Karagümrük, 75% for Fenerbahçe — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 62% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Fatih Karagümrük's games and 75% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 62% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 18, as Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.43 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.58 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.94 / defence 1.33 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.01 / defence 1.29, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 33% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 40%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 53%, Fenerbahçe 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.47 PPG, Fenerbahçe 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.