Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük at 43% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük host Başakşehir at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 20 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Fatih Karagümrük — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Fatih Karagümrük's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Başakşehir stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Başakşehir away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Başakşehir's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Fatih Karagümrük's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Fatih Karagümrük's 30% BTTS rate and Başakşehir's 20% (from Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 home games and Başakşehir's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
Fatih Karagümrük hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Başakşehir and 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended Fatih Karagümrük 2–0 Başakşehir — a Fatih Karagümrük win.
The head-to-head data gives Fatih Karagümrük an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 59% versus Başakşehir 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 62% | Başakşehir 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.38 xG and Başakşehir 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.112 / defence 0.916 | Başakşehir attack 0.920 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.225. Data: built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 56 games and Başakşehir's last 56.
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 43% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 26%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 2.35 | Draw 3.19 | Başakşehir 3.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), yet Başakşehir are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 43% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Fatih Karagümrük 3 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form Başakşehir (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 home games and Başakşehir's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Fatih Karagümrük 30% (last 10 home games) | Başakşehir 20% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 21 | Venue: Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 20 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 43% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.38 / Başakşehir 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.112 / def 0.916 | Başakşehir attack 0.920 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Başakşehir xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir FAQs
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Fatih Karagümrük 1 - 1 Başakşehir.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 21) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 43% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 56 games and Başakşehir's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
43%
2.35
31%
3.19
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.41
1.03
Başakşehir xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
7%
15.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.03 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 18W 17D 21L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Başakşehir's form line: 25W 13D 18L from 56 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fatih Karagümrük on 1.27 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 1.46 PPG from their last 28 home games (11W 8D 9L).
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 8W 9D 11L from their last 28 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.41 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük (Home) vs Başakşehir (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir Form FAQs
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 18W 17D 21L in their last 56 games (1.27 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 25W 13D 18L in their last 56 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Başakşehir away?
Fatih Karagümrük's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.46 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fatih Karagümrük
3
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, Başakşehir have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2026: Başakşehir 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 57%, Başakşehir 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 36% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 39% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 36% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 64% of Başakşehir's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, as Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.38 xG and Başakşehir 1.03 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.11 / defence 0.92 against Başakşehir attack 0.92 / defence 0.82, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 43% | Draw 31% | Başakşehir 26%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 62%, Başakşehir 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 1.27 PPG, Başakşehir 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.