Eyüpspor 3-2 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Gaziantep FK travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Eyüpspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Eyüpspor — All Games: 2W 3D 1L from 6 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gaziantep FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gaziantep FK's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Eyüpspor at 1.50 PPG versus Gaziantep FK's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Eyüpspor register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Gaziantep FK in 70% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Gaziantep FK in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 67% versus Gaziantep FK 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 50% | Gaziantep FK 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.70 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 1.011 / defence 1.018 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.077 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.279. Data: 6 Eyüpspor games / 43 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 44% | Draw 26% | Gaziantep FK 31%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Gaziantep FK 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eyüpspor are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 67% | Gaziantep FK 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 44% | Draw 26% | Gaziantep FK 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Eyüpspor 1.70 / Gaziantep FK 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 1.011 / def 1.018 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.077 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Gaziantep FK xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Eyüpspor 3 - 2 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 44% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-3D-1L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Eyüpspor's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.92
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
3.10
1.40
Gaziantep FK xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
6%
17.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.40 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Eyüpspor have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 2W 3D 1L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Gaziantep FK's form line: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eyüpspor on 1.50 PPG, Gaziantep FK on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 0.83 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eyüpspor have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gaziantep FK in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Early Season
Gaziantep FK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 games (1.50 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Have Eyüpspor or Gaziantep FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Gaziantep FK in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Eyüpspor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2026, when Eyüpspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Eyüpspor
0
Draws
1
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 3, Gaziantep FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Eyüpspor 3-0 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 67%, Gaziantep FK 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Eyüpspor) and 33% (Gaziantep FK).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gaziantep FK in 50%; Gaziantep FK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Gaziantep FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 33% of Gaziantep FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 33% of Gaziantep FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eyüpspor edge out Gaziantep FK 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Gaziantep FK 3-2 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.70 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.40 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Eyüpspor beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.02 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.08 / defence 1.16, drawn from 6/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 44% | Draw 26% | Gaziantep FK 31%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 50%, Gaziantep FK 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 1.50 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gaziantep FK scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.