Bodrum FK 0-1 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodrum FK vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bodrum FK and Gaziantep FK meet at Bodrum İlçe Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Monday 12 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Gaziantep FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gaziantep FK haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodrum FK 1.31 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodrum FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.152 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.236. Data: 0 Bodrum FK games / 38 Gaziantep FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Bodrum FK 28% | Draw 28% | Gaziantep FK 43%. Fair-value odds: Bodrum FK 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Gaziantep FK 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodrum FK vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Bodrum İlçe Stadı • Kick-off: Monday 12 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodrum FK 28% | Draw 28% | Gaziantep FK 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Bodrum FK 1.31 / Gaziantep FK 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Bodrum FK attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.152 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Bodrum FK xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Gaziantep FK xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodrum FK vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Bodrum FK vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 12 August 2024 at Bodrum İlçe Stadı.
What was the final score in Bodrum FK vs Gaziantep FK?
Bodrum FK 0 - 1 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Bodrum FK vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Bodrum İlçe Stadı.
What competition is Bodrum FK vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Bodrum FK vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Bodrum FK vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Bodrum FK a 28% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodrum FK vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Bodrum FK and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Bodrum FK vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Gaziantep FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodrum FK and Gaziantep FK in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bodrum FK's attack rating (0.85) and Gaziantep FK's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gaziantep FK's attack (1.15x) against Bodrum FK's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 0/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
28%
3.51
28%
3.51
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Bodrum FK xG
Total xG
2.95
1.64
Gaziantep FK xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
6%
18.07
12%
8.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodrum FK vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Bodrum FK and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Bodrum FK and 1.64 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodrum FK vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodrum FK
Pre-Season
Gaziantep FK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bodrum FK
1
Draws
1
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Gaziantep FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Bodrum FK have won 0, Gaziantep FK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodrum FK and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Gaziantep FK 0-0 Bodrum FK.
Who has won more matches between Bodrum FK and Gaziantep FK?
Gaziantep FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodrum FK home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Gaziantep FK edge out Bodrum FK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Bodrum FK 0-1 at Bodrum İlçe Stadı, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 1.31 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.64 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bodrum FK fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.15 / defence 1.05, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 28% | Draw 28% | Gaziantep FK 43%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.