Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Alanyaspor travel to Besiktas Park to take on Beşiktaş. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 January 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's home record at Besiktas Park: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Besiktas Park than their overall form suggests.
Alanyaspor — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beşiktaş 1.60 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Beşiktaş have won 2, Alanyaspor 3, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Alanyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Beşiktaş trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 57% versus Alanyaspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 60% | Alanyaspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 2.02 xG and Alanyaspor 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.313 / defence 0.913 | Alanyaspor attack 0.849 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.172. Beşiktaş carry an above-average attack strength of 1.313 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Beşiktaş games / 42 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 63% | Draw 21% | Alanyaspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Alanyaspor 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 50% | Alanyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Besiktas Park • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 63% | Draw 21% | Alanyaspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 52% | xG Beşiktaş 2.02 / Alanyaspor 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.313 / def 0.913 | Alanyaspor attack 0.849 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Alanyaspor xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 31 January 2027 at Besiktas Park.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Besiktas Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 63% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
Record (10 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 5 | Alanyaspor 3W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.82
16%
6.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.92
0.91
Alanyaspor xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.82
21%
Draw
6.19
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
13%
7.51
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
2%
46.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.91 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 22W 9D 11L from 42 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 10W 19D 13L across 42 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beşiktaş by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alanyaspor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 13W 4D 4L from 21 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 3W 12D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.17 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 22W 9D 11L in their last 42 games (1.79 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 10W 19D 13L in their last 42 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Alanyaspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.05 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2022, when Beşiktaş won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
5
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 2, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-0 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Beşiktaş at 67%, Alanyaspor at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Beşiktaş) and 48% (Alanyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Beşiktaş's games and 71% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Beşiktaş's matches and 48% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.