Beşiktaş 0-0 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tüpraş Stadyumu plays host to Beşiktaş versus Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beşiktaş have posted 6W 1D 3L at Tüpraş Stadyumu — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
Adana Demirspor (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Beşiktaş's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Adana Demirspor's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Beşiktaş, 1 for Adana Demirspor and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2023, ended 2–4 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 58% and Adana Demirspor 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 63% | Adana Demirspor 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.54 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.063 / defence 1.062 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.825 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.240. Data: 57 Beşiktaş games / 57 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 45% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Adana Demirspor 4.00. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 50% | Adana Demirspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Jan 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 45% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Beşiktaş 1.54 / Adana Demirspor 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.063 / def 1.062 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.825 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Adana Demirspor xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 23 January 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Beşiktaş 0 - 0 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 45% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor?
Record (5 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 2 | Adana Demirspor 1W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.82x) against Beşiktaş's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
45%
2.20
30%
3.33
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.63
1.09
Adana Demirspor xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
5%
19.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.09 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş come into this having played 57 games, going 34W 11D 12L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 1.74 PPG from 57 outings (27W 18D 12L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.98 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.74 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Beşiktaş's home form reads 19W 5D 4L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 1.25 points per game from 28 outings (8W 11D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Adana Demirspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.93 scored and 1.25 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor in 63%.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 34W 11D 12L in their last 57 games (1.98 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 27W 18D 12L in their last 57 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.21 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 1-4 on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 3, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Beşiktaş 4-1 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 54%, Adana Demirspor 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Beşiktaş) and 54% (Adana Demirspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Beşiktaş's games and 71% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Beşiktaş's matches and 54% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Beşiktaş's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, as Beşiktaş and Adana Demirspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.54 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.09 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Beşiktaş fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Adana Demirspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.06 / defence 1.06 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.82 / defence 0.96, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 45% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 25%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 63%, Adana Demirspor 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.98 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.