Başakşehir 2-2 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kasımpaşa make the trip to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu to face Başakşehir in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Monday 23 December 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Başakşehir's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Başakşehir have posted 6W 3D 1L at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Kasımpaşa have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.40 for Kasımpaşa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Başakşehir have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Kasımpaşa in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, Başakşehir are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 4–1 with Başakşehir winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Başakşehir and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Başakşehir half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Kasımpaşa half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 47% versus Kasımpaşa 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 43% | Kasımpaşa 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.69 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.244 / defence 0.875 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.200 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.166. Data: 53 Başakşehir games / 53 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 46% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 26%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Kasımpaşa 3.85. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 60% | Kasımpaşa 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 23 Dec 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 46% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Başakşehir 1.69 / Kasımpaşa 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.244 / def 0.875 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.200 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Kasımpaşa xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 23 December 2024 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Başakşehir 2 - 2 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 46% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa?
Record (5 meetings): Başakşehir 5W | Draws 0 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Başakşehir's attack at 1.24x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (1.20x) against Başakşehir's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
46%
2.15
28%
3.60
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.92
1.23
Kasımpaşa xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
5%
21.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.23 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 24W 11D 18L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 20W 15D 18L from 53 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Başakşehir against 1.42 for Kasımpaşa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 1.85 PPG from 26 outings (14W 6D 6L).
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 10W 8D 8L from 26 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Başakşehir are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.55 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 64%.
Last 53 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 24W 11D 18L in their last 53 games (1.57 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 20W 15D 18L in their last 53 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Başakşehir's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.85 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Başakşehir won 4-0 on 8 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Başakşehir
2
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 8, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Başakşehir 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 50%, Kasımpaşa 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Başakşehir) and 62% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Başakşehir's games and 65% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Başakşehir's recent games and 62% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa finished level at 2-2 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.69 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.23 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.24 / defence 0.88 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.20 / defence 0.83, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 46% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 26%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 43%, Kasımpaşa 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.57 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.