Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 14 as Başakşehir welcome Fenerbahçe to Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 December 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Başakşehir's home record at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
Fenerbahçe — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fenerbahçe away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Başakşehir 1.80 PPG, Fenerbahçe 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Fenerbahçe, who boast 7 victories compared to 2 for Başakşehir.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Başakşehir trading profile (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe trading profile (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 57% versus Fenerbahçe 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 60% | Fenerbahçe 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.44 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.140 / defence 0.800 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.161 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Data: 37 Başakşehir games / 37 Fenerbahçe games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 44% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 30%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Fenerbahçe 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Başakşehir 40% | Fenerbahçe 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 44% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Başakşehir 1.44 / Fenerbahçe 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.140 / def 0.800 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.161 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Fenerbahçe xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 6 December 2026 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
Where is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 44% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
Record (10 meetings): Başakşehir 2W | Draws 1 | Fenerbahçe 7W.
What form are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
44%
2.27
26%
3.81
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.57
1.13
Fenerbahçe xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.13 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 17W 10D 10L from 37 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 23W 11D 3L across 37 games — 2.16 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Başakşehir heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 9W 7D 3L from 19 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 11W 5D 3L across 19 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.27 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 62%.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Early Season
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 17W 10D 10L in their last 37 games (1.65 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 23W 11D 3L in their last 37 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 1.79 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2023, when Fenerbahçe won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
1
Draws
7
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Fenerbahçe have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Fenerbahçe 3-1 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 58%, Fenerbahçe 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Başakşehir) and 63% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 47% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Başakşehir's matches and 63% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Başakşehir and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.