Antalyaspor 3-2 Ümraniyespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Ümraniyespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Corendon Airlines Park plays host to Antalyaspor versus Ümraniyespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 28 January 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Antalyaspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antalyaspor have posted 3W 2D 5L at Corendon Airlines Park — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ümraniyespor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ümraniyespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Ümraniyespor have posted 2W 3D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.12 PPG. Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.10 for Ümraniyespor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Antalyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ümraniyespor in 62%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Antalyaspor lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Antalyaspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Ümraniyespor half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 53% versus Ümraniyespor 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 47% | Ümraniyespor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.67 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.968 / defence 1.162 | Ümraniyespor attack 0.944 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.375. Data: 56 Antalyaspor games / 19 Ümraniyespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 41% | Draw 24% | Ümraniyespor 34%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Ümraniyespor 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 60% | Ümraniyespor 62% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Ümraniyespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 41% | Draw 24% | Ümraniyespor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Antalyaspor 1.67 / Ümraniyespor 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.968 / def 1.162 | Ümraniyespor attack 0.944 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Ümraniyespor xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Ümraniyespor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Ümraniyespor kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Antalyaspor 3 - 2 Ümraniyespor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Ümraniyespor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Ümraniyespor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Ümraniyespor is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 41% chance of winning, Ümraniyespor a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Antalyaspor and Ümraniyespor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Ümraniyespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Ümraniyespor?
Record (1 meetings): Antalyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Ümraniyespor 0W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Ümraniyespor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Ümraniyespor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Ümraniyespor's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Ümraniyespor's attack (0.94x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 56/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
41%
2.41
24%
4.14
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
3.18
1.51
Ümraniyespor xG
2.41
41%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
9%
10.91
6%
15.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.5 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Ümraniyespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.51 for Ümraniyespor, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 4D 10L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ümraniyespor's form line: 3W 5D 11L from 19 games, 0.74 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Ümraniyespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Antalyaspor against 0.74 for Ümraniyespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
On the road, Ümraniyespor have gone 2W 3D 3L from 8 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Ümraniyespor are on 1.16 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ümraniyespor in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Ümraniyespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Ümraniyespor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 5W 4D 10L in their last 19 games (1.00 PPG), while Ümraniyespor have gone 3W 5D 11L in their last 19 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Ümraniyespor away?
Ümraniyespor's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.00 PPG; Ümraniyespor away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
0
Draws
0
Ümraniyespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Ümraniyespor?
From 2 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Ümraniyespor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Ümraniyespor last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Antalyaspor 3-2 Ümraniyespor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Ümraniyespor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ümraniyespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 62%, Ümraniyespor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Antalyaspor) and 50% (Ümraniyespor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Ümraniyespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Ümraniyespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Antalyaspor's games and 62% of Ümraniyespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Ümraniyespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Antalyaspor's matches and 50% of Ümraniyespor's.
Do Antalyaspor and Ümraniyespor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ümraniyespor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Ümraniyespor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Ümraniyespor 3-2 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.67 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.51 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Antalyaspor beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.16 against Ümraniyespor attack 0.94 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 41% | Draw 24% | Ümraniyespor 34%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 47%, Ümraniyespor 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.00 PPG, Ümraniyespor 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Ümraniyespor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.