Amed vs Kasımpaşa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amed at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amed vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Amed host Kasımpaşa at Diyarbakir Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Amed have gone 5W 2D 1L from 8 outings — a 2.12 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.25 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Amed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Amed have posted 5W 0D 0L at Diyarbakir Stadium — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Diyarbakir Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.12 — Amed are significantly better at Diyarbakir Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Amed carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.52 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.12 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Amed have won 0, Kasımpaşa 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Amed in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 38% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Amed 50% and Kasımpaşa 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amed 75% | Kasımpaşa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 2.08 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.356 / defence 0.899 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.024 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.187. Amed carry an above-average attack strength of 1.356 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 8 Amed games / 42 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amed 60% | Draw 21% | Kasımpaşa 19%. Fair-value odds: Amed 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Kasımpaşa 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Amed (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Amed at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Amed 40% | Kasımpaşa 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Diyarbakir Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 60% | Draw 21% | Kasımpaşa 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Amed 2.08 / Kasımpaşa 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 1.356 / def 0.899 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.024 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Amed (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Amed xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Kasımpaşa xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Amed vs Kasımpaşa is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Diyarbakir Stadium.
Where is Amed vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What competition is Amed vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Amed vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 60% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Amed and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Kasımpaşa?
Record (1 meetings): Amed 0W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Amed and Kasımpaşa in?
Amed (all comps): 5W-2D-1L in 8 | 2.12 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 1.12 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Amed's attack at 1.36x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Amed's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.83
19%
5.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Amed xG
Total xG
3.17
1.09
Kasımpaşa xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
5.19
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
12%
8.01
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
2%
41.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amed vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Amed and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Amed and 1.09 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Amed vs Kasımpaşa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Amed come into this having played 8 games, going 5W 2D 1L for 2.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Amed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kasımpaşa sit at 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (3W 4D 1L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amed carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Amed's home form reads 4W 0D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.12 PPG overall — Amed are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Kasımpaşa have taken 1.75 points per game from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Amed are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.50 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 75%.
Defensively: Amed have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amed
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amed and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Amed have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 games (2.12 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 3W 4D 1L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amed at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Amed's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amed at home: 3.00 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Amed or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amed have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Amed and Kasımpaşa runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Amed
1
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Kasımpaşa?
From 1 meetings on record, Amed have won 0, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amed and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Kasımpaşa 2-2 Amed.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amed 50%, Kasımpaşa 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Amed and 50% for Kasımpaşa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Amed keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amed home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amed play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Amed's games and 75% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Amed vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Amed's matches and 50% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Amed and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Amed have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.