Amed vs Başakşehir – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amed at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amed vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 5 as Amed welcome Başakşehir to Diyarbakir Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Amed have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Başakşehir have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Amed at 2.00 PPG versus Başakşehir's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Amed in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amed 33% versus Başakşehir 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amed 67% | Başakşehir 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 1.65 xG and Başakşehir 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.122 / defence 0.962 | Başakşehir attack 0.991 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Data: 3 Amed games / 37 Başakşehir games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Amed 49% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 27%. Fair-value odds: Amed 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Başakşehir 3.70. Amed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Amed at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Amed 33% | Başakşehir 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Diyarbakir Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 49% | Draw 24% | Başakşehir 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Amed 1.65 / Başakşehir 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 1.122 / def 0.962 | Başakşehir attack 0.991 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Amed (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Amed xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Başakşehir xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Başakşehir kick off?
Amed vs Başakşehir is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Diyarbakir Stadium.
Where is Amed vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What competition is Amed vs Başakşehir part of?
Amed vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 49% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Amed and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Başakşehir?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amed and Başakşehir in?
Amed (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W. Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Amed's attack at 1.12x the league average against Başakşehir's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Amed's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
49%
2.05
24%
4.10
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Amed xG
Total xG
2.81
1.16
Başakşehir xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
5%
19.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amed vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Amed and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Amed and 1.16 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Amed vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 3 outings, Amed have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 1L record — W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Başakşehir's form line: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Amed are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Başakşehir.
The Goals Picture
Amed are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Başakşehir in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amed
Early Season
Başakşehir
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amed and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Amed have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Amed or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amed have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amed 33%, Başakşehir 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Amed) and 33% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Amed keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Başakşehir in 33%; Amed have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amed home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amed play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Amed's recent matches and 67% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amed vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Amed's recent games and 33% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amed and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Amed have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.