Alanyaspor 0-0 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 11 as Alanyaspor welcome Gaziantep FK to GAİN Park Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 3 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at GAİN Park Stadyumu this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at GAİN Park Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Gaziantep FK — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alanyaspor 1.30 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Alanyaspor: 6 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for Gaziantep FK, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Alanyaspor winning.
The historical record gives Alanyaspor a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Gaziantep FK trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 54% versus Gaziantep FK 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 44% | Gaziantep FK 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.23 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.904 / defence 0.663 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.991 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.327. Alanyaspor's defence rating of 0.663 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Alanyaspor games / 46 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 41% | Draw 35% | Gaziantep FK 23%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Gaziantep FK 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 30% | Gaziantep FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: GAİN Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 3 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 41% | Draw 35% | Gaziantep FK 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Alanyaspor 1.23 / Gaziantep FK 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.904 / def 0.663 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.991 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Gaziantep FK xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 3 November 2025 at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Alanyaspor 0 - 0 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 41% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Record (7 meetings): Alanyaspor 6W | Draws 0 | Gaziantep FK 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
41%
2.42
35%
2.82
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.10
0.87
Gaziantep FK xG
2.42
41%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
7%
14.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 10.7 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.1 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.87 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 46 games, going 15W 13D 18L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gaziantep FK sit at 1.35 PPG from 46 outings (17W 11D 18L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.26 PPG, Gaziantep FK on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 10W 6D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Gaziantep FK have taken 0.82 points per game from 22 outings (4W 6D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gaziantep FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.30 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 15W 13D 18L in their last 46 games (1.26 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 17W 11D 18L in their last 46 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.64 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2022, when Alanyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
1
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 6, Gaziantep FK have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Gaziantep FK 1-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 50%, Gaziantep FK 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Alanyaspor) and 68% (Gaziantep FK).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Gaziantep FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Alanyaspor's games and 68% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 68% of Gaziantep FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Alanyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, as Alanyaspor and Gaziantep FK drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.23 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.87 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Alanyaspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Gaziantep FK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.90 / defence 0.66 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.99 / defence 1.03, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 41% | Draw 35% | Gaziantep FK 23%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 44%, Gaziantep FK 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.26 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.