Adana Demirspor 1-1 Giresunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 20 as Adana Demirspor welcome Giresunspor to Yeni Adana Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 January 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Adana Demirspor stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor's home record at Yeni Adana Stadyumu: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yeni Adana Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Adana Demirspor are significantly better at Yeni Adana Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Giresunspor have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Giresunspor have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Adana Demirspor) versus 1.20 (Giresunspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Adana Demirspor, 1 for Giresunspor and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 3–2 with Adana Demirspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Adana Demirspor trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Giresunspor trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 55% versus Giresunspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 55% | Giresunspor 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 2.47 xG and Giresunspor 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.386 / defence 0.732 | Giresunspor attack 0.862 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.358. Adana Demirspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.386 — their λ of 2.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Adana Demirspor's defence rating of 0.732 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Adana Demirspor games / 56 Giresunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 72% | Draw 17% | Giresunspor 11%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | Giresunspor 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Adana Demirspor (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Adana Demirspor are the pick at 72% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 50% | Giresunspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 20 Jan 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 72% | Draw 17% | Giresunspor 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 53% | xG Adana Demirspor 2.47 / Giresunspor 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.386 / def 0.732 | Giresunspor attack 0.862 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.47
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Giresunspor xG
53%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 20 January 2023 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor?
Adana Demirspor 1 - 1 Giresunspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 72% chance of winning, Giresunspor a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Giresunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Giresunspor?
Record (3 meetings): Adana Demirspor 2W | Draws 0 | Giresunspor 1W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Giresunspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Giresunspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Adana Demirspor's attack rating (1.39) and Giresunspor's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 2.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Giresunspor's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
72%
1.38
17%
5.91
11%
9.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.47
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
3.32
0.86
Giresunspor xG
1.38
72%
Home win
5.91
17%
Draw
9.33
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
8%
11.79
Win to Nil
31%
3.26
1%
109.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Giresunspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 0.86 for Giresunspor, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 24W 16D 16L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Giresunspor's form line: 17W 14D 25L from 56 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Adana Demirspor are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Giresunspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 1.93 PPG from 27 outings (15W 7D 5L).
On the road, Giresunspor have gone 7W 8D 12L from 27 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Giresunspor are on 1.05 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Giresunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Giresunspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 24W 16D 16L in their last 56 games (1.57 PPG), while Giresunspor have gone 17W 14D 25L in their last 56 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Giresunspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.93 PPG; Giresunspor away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Giresunspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
1
Draws
1
Giresunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Giresunspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Giresunspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Giresunspor last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2023, when Adana Demirspor 1-1 Giresunspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Giresunspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Giresunspor see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 48%, Giresunspor 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Adana Demirspor) and 52% (Giresunspor).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Giresunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Giresunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 59% of Giresunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Giresunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 52% of Giresunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Giresunspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Giresunspor in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Adana Demirspor and Giresunspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, as Adana Demirspor and Giresunspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 2.47 xG and Giresunspor 0.86 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Adana Demirspor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.39 / defence 0.73 against Giresunspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 72% | Draw 17% | Giresunspor 11%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 55%, Giresunspor 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Giresunspor's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.