Adana Demirspor 1-6 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Adana Demirspor at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Gaziantep FK encounter.

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Analysis

Gaziantep FK make the trip to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to face Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Adana Demirspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 3W 3D 4L at Yeni Adana Stadyumu — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Gaziantep FK have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Gaziantep FK away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Adana Demirspor. A 0.50 PPG lead over Gaziantep FK (1.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Gaziantep FK in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Across 5 previous meetings, Adana Demirspor are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Adana Demirspor and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading & In-Play

Adana Demirspor — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Gaziantep FK — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 60% versus Gaziantep FK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 59% | Gaziantep FK 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.77 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.912 / defence 1.015 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.038 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.234. Gaziantep FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Adana Demirspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Adana Demirspor games / 70 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 47% | Draw 27% | Gaziantep FK 27%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Gaziantep FK 3.70. Adana Demirspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Adana Demirspor are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Adana Demirspor 60% | Gaziantep FK 70% BTTS from recent games.

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