Adana Demirspor 0-1 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eyüpspor at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Eyüpspor travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Adana Demirspor stand at 0W 2D 8L — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Adana Demirspor at home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eyüpspor — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Eyüpspor's away record over their last 6 away games: 1W 3D 2L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Eyüpspor's 1.80 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Adana Demirspor's 0.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Adana Demirspor's last 10 home games and Eyüpspor's last 6 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Adana Demirspor in-play tendencies (last 11 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (last 11 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Adana Demirspor 73% and Eyüpspor 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 73% | Eyüpspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.38 xG and Eyüpspor 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.902 / defence 1.623 | Eyüpspor attack 0.857 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.325. Adana Demirspor's defence rating of 1.623 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Eyüpspor's projected output up. Data: built from Adana Demirspor's last 48 games and Eyüpspor's last 11.
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 28% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 47%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 3.61 | Draw 4.01 | Eyüpspor 2.11. Eyüpspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.38 / 1.84) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eyüpspor as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Adana Demirspor's last 10 home games and Eyüpspor's last 6 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Adana Demirspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Eyüpspor 83% (last 6 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 12 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 28% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Adana Demirspor 1.38 / Eyüpspor 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.902 / def 1.623 | Eyüpspor attack 0.857 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Eyüpspor xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor FAQs
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor?
Adana Demirspor 0 - 1 Eyüpspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 12) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 28% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Eyüpspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 0.90x the league average against Eyüpspor's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Adana Demirspor's last 48 games and Eyüpspor's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
28%
3.61
25%
4.01
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
3.22
1.84
Eyüpspor xG
3.61
28%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
16%
6.31
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
4%
22.80
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.84 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Adana Demirspor have picked up 0.18 PPG on a 0W 2D 9L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Eyüpspor's form line: 5W 4D 2L from 11 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Eyüpspor are the form team by 1.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Adana Demirspor.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Adana Demirspor have posted 0.00 PPG from their last 6 home games (0W 0D 6L).
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 1W 3D 2L from their last 6 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eyüpspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.73 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.55 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Eyüpspor in 64%.
Defensively: Eyüpspor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
Adana Demirspor (Home) vs Eyüpspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Eyüpspor
Blended
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor Form FAQs
What form are Adana Demirspor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 0W 2D 9L in their last 11 games (0.18 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 5W 4D 2L in their last 11 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Eyüpspor's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 0.00 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2024. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 14 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Adana Demirspor
0
Draws
2
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Eyüpspor?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Adana Demirspor have won 0, Eyüpspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 April 2025: Eyüpspor 6-0 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Eyüpspor?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Adana Demirspor at 83%, Eyüpspor at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Adana Demirspor and 50% for Eyüpspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Adana Demirspor vs Eyüpspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Adana Demirspor and Eyüpspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Adana Demirspor's games and 83% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Adana Demirspor and Eyüpspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 50% of Eyüpspor's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Eyüpspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 67% of Eyüpspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eyüpspor edge out Adana Demirspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Adana Demirspor 0-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.38 xG and Eyüpspor 1.84 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Adana Demirspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Eyüpspor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.62 against Eyüpspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 48/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 28% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 47%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 73%, Eyüpspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.67 average — tighter than their form line. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.