Uthai Thani 4-1 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Uthai Thani host Rayong FC at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Uthai Thani stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Rayong FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayong FC away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Uthai Thani 1.00 PPG, Rayong FC 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Uthai Thani, 1 for Rayong FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Rayong FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Rayong FC in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 58% and Rayong FC 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 47% | Rayong FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.99 xG and Rayong FC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.058 / defence 0.900 | Rayong FC attack 0.962 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.100. Rayong FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Uthai Thani's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Uthai Thani games / 55 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 59% | Draw 25% | Rayong FC 15%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Rayong FC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Uthai Thani (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 50% | Rayong FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 59% | Draw 25% | Rayong FC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Uthai Thani 1.99 / Rayong FC 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 1.058 / def 0.900 | Rayong FC attack 0.962 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Rayong FC xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC?
Uthai Thani 4 - 1 Rayong FC.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC part of?
Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 59% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Uthai Thani and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Rayong FC?
Record (3 meetings): Uthai Thani 2W | Draws 0 | Rayong FC 1W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Rayong FC in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Rayong FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Uthai Thani's attack rating (1.06) and Rayong FC's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rayong FC's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
59%
1.68
25%
3.94
15%
6.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.94
0.95
Rayong FC xG
1.68
59%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
6.59
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
14%
7.33
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
2%
48.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 0.95 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Uthai Thani's recent record stands at 15W 19D 21L from 55 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rayong FC, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 23L across 55 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Uthai Thani on 1.16 PPG, Rayong FC on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Uthai Thani have managed 10W 11D 6L from 27 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rayong FC's away record stands at 4W 7D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rayong FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Uthai Thani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.42 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC in 73%.
Last 55 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Rayong FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 15W 19D 21L in their last 55 games (1.16 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 16W 16D 23L in their last 55 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Rayong FC away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.52 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Uthai Thani and Rayong FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2026, when Uthai Thani won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Rayong FC specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Uthai Thani
0
Draws
1
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Rayong FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 3, Rayong FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Uthai Thani 4-1 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Rayong FC?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 59%, Rayong FC 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Uthai Thani) and 63% (Rayong FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Rayong FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Uthai Thani's games and 70% of Rayong FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Uthai Thani's matches and 63% of Rayong FC's.
Do Uthai Thani and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Uthai Thani run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Rayong FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Rayong FC 4-1 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.99 xG and Rayong FC 0.95 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Uthai Thani beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 1.06 / defence 0.90 against Rayong FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.28, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 59% | Draw 25% | Rayong FC 15%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 47%, Rayong FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Rayong FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.16 PPG, Rayong FC 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Rayong FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.