Uthai Thani 3-1 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Muangthong United at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Muangthong United make the trip to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium to face Uthai Thani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 November 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Uthai Thani (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Muangthong United have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Uthai Thani against 1.00 for Muangthong United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Uthai Thani register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Muangthong United in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Uthai Thani, 2 for Muangthong United and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Uthai Thani — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Muangthong United — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 62% and Muangthong United 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 45% | Muangthong United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.28 xG and Muangthong United 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.859 / defence 1.221 | Muangthong United attack 0.882 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.209. Data: 40 Uthai Thani games / 40 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 33% | Draw 32% | Muangthong United 34%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Muangthong United 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Muangthong United are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Muangthong United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 90% | Muangthong United 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 33% | Draw 32% | Muangthong United 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG Uthai Thani 1.28 / Muangthong United 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.859 / def 1.221 | Muangthong United attack 0.882 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Muangthong United xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United?
Uthai Thani 3 - 1 Muangthong United.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United part of?
Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 33% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Uthai Thani and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Muangthong United?
Record (4 meetings): Uthai Thani 1W | Draws 1 | Muangthong United 2W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Muangthong United in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Muangthong United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Uthai Thani's attack at 0.86x the league average against Muangthong United's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Muangthong United's attack (0.88x) against Uthai Thani's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
33%
2.99
32%
3.10
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.59
1.30
Muangthong United xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
9%
10.98
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.30 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Uthai Thani's recent record stands at 10W 14D 16L from 40 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Muangthong United, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 15L across 40 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Uthai Thani against 1.38 for Muangthong United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Uthai Thani have managed 6W 9D 5L from 20 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Muangthong United's away record stands at 3W 7D 10L across 20 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Uthai Thani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.40 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 10W 14D 16L in their last 40 games (1.10 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 15W 10D 15L in their last 40 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Muangthong United away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.35 PPG; Muangthong United away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Muangthong United won 5-2 on 3 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Uthai Thani have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Muangthong United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Uthai Thani
1
Draws
3
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Muangthong United?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 2, Muangthong United have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Muangthong United 1-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Uthai Thani, 65% for Muangthong United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Uthai Thani) and 50% (Muangthong United).
On the defensive side: Muangthong United in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Muangthong United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Uthai Thani's games and 65% of Muangthong United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 50% of Muangthong United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Uthai Thani cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Muangthong United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Muangthong United 3-1 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.28 xG and Muangthong United 1.30 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Uthai Thani beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.86 / defence 1.22 against Muangthong United attack 0.88 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 33% | Draw 32% | Muangthong United 34%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Uthai Thani win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 45%, Muangthong United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Muangthong United's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.10 PPG, Muangthong United 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Muangthong United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.