Uthai Thani 2-2 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lamphun Warrior make the trip to Uthai Thani Province Stadium to face Uthai Thani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 December 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Uthai Thani have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Uthai Thani have posted 2W 1D 4L at Uthai Thani Province Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Uthai Thani Province Stadium this season.
Lamphun Warrior (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Uthai Thani, 1.50 for Lamphun Warrior — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Uthai Thani — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 54% versus Lamphun Warrior 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Uthai Thani 62% | Lamphun Warrior 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.39 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.725 / defence 1.205 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.942 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.284. Uthai Thani's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Uthai Thani games / 43 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 35% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 38%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Lamphun Warrior 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Uthai Thani 43% | Lamphun Warrior 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Uthai Thani Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 35% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Uthai Thani 1.39 / Lamphun Warrior 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.725 / def 1.205 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.942 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Lamphun Warrior xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Uthai Thani 2 - 2 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 35% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Uthai Thani's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Lamphun Warrior's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (0.94x) against Uthai Thani's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
35%
2.88
28%
3.61
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.85
1.46
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
8%
12.38
9%
10.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.46 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Uthai Thani's recent record stands at 5W 2D 6L from 13 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 6L across 13 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Uthai Thani against 1.15 for Lamphun Warrior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Uthai Thani have managed 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lamphun Warrior's away record stands at 0W 2D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lamphun Warrior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Uthai Thani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.31 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 games (1.31 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.17 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Uthai Thani have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Uthai Thani
4
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 1, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Uthai Thani 0-0 Lamphun Warrior.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 33%, Lamphun Warrior 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Uthai Thani) and 83% (Lamphun Warrior). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Uthai Thani have failed to score in 50% of games; Lamphun Warrior in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Uthai Thani's recent matches and 50% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Uthai Thani vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Uthai Thani's matches and 83% of Lamphun Warrior's.
Do Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Uthai Thani and Lamphun Warrior drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.39 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.46 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.72 / defence 1.21 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.94 / defence 1.18, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 35% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 38%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 62%, Lamphun Warrior 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.31 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.