Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 41%, yet in-form Ratchaburi provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 18 as Sukhothai FC welcome Ratchaburi to Thalay Luang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sukhothai FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Thalay Luang Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thalay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Ratchaburi haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Ratchaburi's 2.00 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Sukhothai FC's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sukhothai FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ratchaburi in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Sukhothai FC, 3 for Ratchaburi and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Ratchaburi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 47% versus Ratchaburi 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 37% | Ratchaburi 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.38 xG and Ratchaburi 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.002 / defence 0.985 | Ratchaburi attack 1.147 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 0.956. Data: 30 Sukhothai FC games / 30 Ratchaburi games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 41% | Draw 33% | Ratchaburi 26%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Ratchaburi 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ratchaburi (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 60% | Ratchaburi 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 41% | Draw 33% | Ratchaburi 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.38 / Ratchaburi 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 1.002 / def 0.985 | Ratchaburi attack 1.147 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.488 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Ratchaburi xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 21 February 2027 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 41% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi?
Record (8 meetings): Sukhothai FC 3W | Draws 2 | Ratchaburi 3W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 1.00x the league average against Ratchaburi's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
41%
2.45
33%
3.06
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.46
1.08
Ratchaburi xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
7%
15.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.08 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 6W 10D 14L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. Sukhothai FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Ratchaburi's form line: 18W 5D 7L from 30 games, 1.97 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. Ratchaburi haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Ratchaburi are the form team by 1.04 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sukhothai FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (6W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 10W 1D 4L from 15 away games — 2.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.83 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Pre-Season
Ratchaburi
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 6W 10D 14L in their last 30 games (0.93 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 18W 5D 7L in their last 30 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Ratchaburi's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.60 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ratchaburi have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sukhothai FC
2
Draws
3
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 3, Ratchaburi have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-2 Ratchaburi.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 67%, Ratchaburi 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sukhothai FC) and 60% (Ratchaburi).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sukhothai FC's games and 60% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 60% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.