Sukhothai FC vs Port FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 41%, yet in-form Port FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sukhothai FC vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sukhothai FC and Port FC meet at Thalay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sukhothai FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Thalay Luang Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thalay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Port FC have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Port FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Port FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Port FC arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Port FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sukhothai FC lead 3W to 5W over the last 8 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 0–5 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Port FC — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 47% versus Port FC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 37% | Port FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.42 xG and Port FC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.982 / defence 0.972 | Port FC attack 1.155 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.020. Data: 30 Sukhothai FC games / 30 Port FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 41% | Draw 30% | Port FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Port FC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sukhothai FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Port FC (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 60% | Port FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 41% | Draw 30% | Port FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.42 / Port FC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.982 / def 0.972 | Port FC attack 1.155 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Port FC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Port FC kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Port FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Port FC part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 41% chance of winning, Port FC a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Port FC?
Record (8 meetings): Sukhothai FC 3W | Draws 0 | Port FC 5W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Port FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 0.98x the league average against Port FC's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (1.16x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.29
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.57
1.15
Port FC xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
7%
14.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.15 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sukhothai FC's recent record stands at 6W 10D 14L from 30 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. Sukhothai FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 18W 6D 6L across 30 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. Port FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 1.07 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sukhothai FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sukhothai FC have managed 6W 6D 3L from 15 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Port FC's away record stands at 7W 2D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Port FC's season.
Attack vs Defence
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.97 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Pre-Season
Port FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Port FC in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 6W 10D 14L in their last 30 games (0.93 PPG), while Port FC have gone 18W 6D 6L in their last 30 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Port FC away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.60 PPG; Port FC away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Port FC in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 5-0 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sukhothai FC have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sukhothai FC
0
Draws
5
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Port FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 3, Port FC have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Port FC 5-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 67%, Port FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sukhothai FC) and 33% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Port FC in 33%; Port FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Port FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 40% of Port FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 33% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Port FC tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Port FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.