Sukhothai FC 0-0 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bangkok United at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 5 as Sukhothai FC welcome Bangkok United to Thung Talay Luang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 September 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 outings — a 0.25 PPG return. Last five: L L D L. They are averaging 0.25 goals per game and conceding 2.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.75 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bangkok United — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Bangkok United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bangkok United away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bangkok United — 2.25 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.25). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
Bangkok United in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sukhothai FC 25% | Bangkok United 0%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 50% | Bangkok United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 0.60 xG and Bangkok United 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.564 / defence 1.199 | Bangkok United attack 1.365 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.122. Sukhothai FC's attack strength of 0.564 is below the league average — the 0.60 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bangkok United's defence strength of 0.780 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bangkok United have an above-average attack strength of 1.365 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 Sukhothai FC games / 34 Bangkok United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 11% | Draw 21% | Bangkok United 67%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 9.09 | Draw 4.76 | Bangkok United 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Bangkok United (67%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bangkok United as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 25% | Bangkok United 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 11% | Draw 21% | Bangkok United 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 38% | xG Sukhothai FC 0.60 / Bangkok United 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.564 / def 1.199 | Bangkok United attack 1.365 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.60
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Bangkok United xG
38%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United?
Sukhothai FC 0 - 0 Bangkok United.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 11% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 67% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 2.75 | L5 L-L-D-L. Bangkok United (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 0.56x the league average against Bangkok United's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bangkok United's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (14.8%), 1-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
11%
8.80
21%
4.68
67%
1.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.8%
Away win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.60
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.43
1.84
Bangkok United xG
8.80
11%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
1.49
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
16%
6.27
55%
1.81
Win to Nil
2%
55.21
37%
2.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 16.1 | 14.8 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 0.60 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.84 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 0.25 PPG on a 0W 1D 3L record — L-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bangkok United's form line: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Bangkok United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 2.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sukhothai FC.
Goals in Recent Form
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 2.75 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Bangkok United in 0%.
Defensively: Bangkok United in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Bangkok United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 4W 0D 0L in their last 4 (3.00 PPG).
Have Sukhothai FC or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2023, when Bangkok United won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Bangkok United specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Sukhothai FC
3
Draws
5
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 0, Bangkok United have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Bangkok United 2-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Bangkok United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sukhothai FC 25% BTTS, Bangkok United 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sukhothai FC) and 50% (Bangkok United).
On the defensive side: Bangkok United in 100%; Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Bangkok United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 0% of Bangkok United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Bangkok United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 50% of Bangkok United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Bangkok United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sukhothai FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Sukhothai FC and Bangkok United drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 0.60 xG and Bangkok United 1.84 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bangkok United landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.56 / defence 1.20 against Bangkok United attack 1.36 / defence 0.78, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 11% | Draw 21% | Bangkok United 67%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 50%, Bangkok United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 12%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 75% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bangkok United's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 100% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sukhothai FC conceded 0 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line. Bangkok United managed 0 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.